World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef5f05ab81ff2961b7971b71987ef3fb2ef793339297078bb8807cda5c85abbc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,315
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 400.62$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.45 | 441 | 38.1%168 W · 273 L | +27.8wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 28c | 256.52$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.23 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 165.36$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.61 | 327 | 48.6%159 W · 168 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 65c | 159.42$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 31c | 158.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.93 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 69c | 144.19$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.7 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 60c | 122.4$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebb…9922backed Yes | 78c | 94.92$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 71c | 85.48$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 83.2$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.34 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 29c | 72.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 30c | 64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 69c | 60$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…b127backed No | 25c | 52.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.56 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…2bdbbacked Yes | 57c | 52.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 21c | 49.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e5a…8662backed Yes | 32c | 47.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c3…92fcbacked Yes | 67c | 44.48$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked Yes | 71c | 41.2$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 56c | 39.17$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 528 | 50.8%268 W · 260 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 73c | 36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 70c | 34$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 186 | 62.4%116 W · 70 L | +13.0wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 186 | 69.4%129 W · 57 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 70c | 31.15$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 71c | 28.84$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 271 | 43.5%118 W · 153 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 43 | 74.4%32 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad1e…ccacbacked Yes | 72c | 27.88$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 75c | 27.39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.85 | 88 | 65.9%58 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 22.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 66c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 223 | 55.6%124 W · 99 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 71c | 19.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…d3bfbacked Yes | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 69c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on July 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on July 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C on July 25?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 28°C on July 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.