MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef78a6a704ce179751795579e0a44c6d0afdff189614a3f3a1db5f7cfb780a33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,906
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,907
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,906 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad4…6866backed No | 54c | 6,196$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.71 | 158 | 49.4%78 W · 80 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Yes | 46c | 4,057$1,848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.65 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Yes | 46c | 1,718$786 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.06 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 66c | 448.45$295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 46c | 375$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.25 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 45c | 268.18$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Yes | 28c | 116.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.43 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 34c | 101.65$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.09 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 46c | 80$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ffd…3ef3backed No | 54c | 73.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 85 | 58.8%50 W · 35 L | +8.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Yes | 34c | 71.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 34c | 66.58$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.94 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1eef…1252backed No | 54c | 54.54$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ee…c9cdbacked No | 54c | 41.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.32 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 54c | 32.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbb…c7fbbacked No | 54c | 26.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Marinersthis page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.