MLB · resolved market

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c25c62b35f904ab244813b472c491ab9ec23f73df53eac7b6eab37bf7be60cd

Rebuilt 23 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Overof Over, Under
Resolved: Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $85,296
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $85,421

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $85,296 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3dfb…abafbacked Under	50c	40,000$19,995 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19,995.21	1,385	49.5%685 W · 700 L	-4.9wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Over	50c	19,447$9,732 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9,714.3	4,279	47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L	-83.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb272…5030backed Over	50c	10,000$5,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,000	362	46.1%167 W · 195 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8ef…2864backed Under	49c	7,953$3,893 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,892.87	208	45.2%94 W · 114 L	-6.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Over	49c	6,784$3,324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,459.82	1,865	52%970 W · 895 L	+50.8wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	51c	6,290$3,216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,074.92	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x032e…2a9ebacked Under	49c	5,539$2,714 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,714.11	2,291	52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L	+24.6wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Over	51c	3,920$1,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,920.8	694	53.6%372 W · 322 L	+14.5wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	52c	3,461$1,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,810.82	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under	49c	3,000$1,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,470	752	48.8%367 W · 385 L	-1.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	62c	2,811$1,742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,069.03	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Over	51c	2,048$1,044 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,003.52	2,290	51%1,167 W · 1,123 L	+23.9wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	50c	1,750$875 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$875	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Over	50c	1,347$672 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.51	527	50.1%264 W · 263 L	+19.7wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Over	50c	1,302$646 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$655.58	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	48c	896.43$431 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$465.39	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under	50c	882.93$442 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.7	2,969	48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L	-5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1a2f…647abacked Over	42c	870$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$504.6	826	36.6%302 W · 524 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34b…9296backed Over	48c	833.32$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$433.33	383	53.5%205 W · 178 L	+7.3wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa057…d092backed Over	50c	752.04$379 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$373.11	2,144	39.6%849 W · 1,295 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Over	51c	687$350 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$336.63	272	49.3%134 W · 138 L	-3.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Over	50c	665.82$332 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.41	204	56.9%116 W · 88 L	+10.4wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	51c	624.53$321 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$303.04	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x584f…54b9backed Over	50c	500$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$250	187	41.2%77 W · 110 L	-11.2wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	50c	411.19$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$206.51	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Under	48c	399.71$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.86	3,453	51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L	+58.1wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5811…0976backed Over	51c	390$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$191.1	1,555	48.9%761 W · 794 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Over	50c	379$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.5	1,777	49.5%880 W · 897 L	+25.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over	51c	376$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$184.24	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Under	48c	369.76$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.48	4,553	49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L	-9.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under	47c	308.26$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145	8,295	47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L	+72.4wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42c7…c415backed Over	49c	282.65$138 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$144.15	120	50.8%61 W · 59 L	+5.5wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe1e3…f1bdbacked Over	50c	254$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127	214	49.5%106 W · 108 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6701…d7d2backed Over	50c	246$123 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$123.5	135	45.2%61 W · 74 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb01d…46f0backed Under	50c	240$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	1,168	49%572 W · 596 L	+17.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x19e5…dd71backed Over	50c	221.73$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$111.03	128	55.5%71 W · 57 L	+7.5wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0e50…2609backed Over	50c	220$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$110	877	50.4%442 W · 435 L	+12.4wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Over	50c	216.38$108 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$108.35	201	56.2%113 W · 88 L	+8.3wins	+0.04per pick	52cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over	50c	207.92$105 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.92	1,000	58.8%588 W · 412 L	+26.0wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Under	49c	205$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.45	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	+25.8wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8fa…581fbacked Over	52c	196.82$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.7	83	50.6%42 W · 41 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under	49c	151.87$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	2,800	49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5f43…3a74backed Over	52c	150$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$72	232	55.2%128 W · 104 L	+13.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd17a…0373backed Over	53c	140$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$66.5	770	50.5%389 W · 381 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…01c9backed Under	64c	139.5$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.28	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	-3.3wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-22%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d67…3667backed Over	64c	136.09$87 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.2	556	45.3%252 W · 304 L	-17.4wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Over	51c	130.19$66 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$64.09	1,205	58.8%708 W · 497 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	56cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed Over	51c	122$62 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.78	736	53%390 W · 346 L	+21.6wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5663…f2e5backed Over	50c	106.54$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.35	86	60.5%52 W · 34 L	+10.0wins	+0.12per pick	49cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda31…f8acbacked Under	54c	99.35$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.65	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	-3.5wins	-0.23per pick	50cpaid	-42.8%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x237f…362ebacked Over	52c	96.13$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.17	87	46%40 W · 47 L	-4.6wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecae…c544backed Under	49c	95.15$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.62	554	48.2%267 W · 287 L	-7.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac27…18e7backed Over	71c	91.11$64 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.86	59	67.8%40 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	68cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f5f…f7aebacked Over	36c	83.33$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.33	27	55.6%15 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	59cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1465…e0dbbacked Under	31c	82.42$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.55	145	44.8%65 W · 80 L	-5.7wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Under	45c	82.06$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.93	9,728	46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L	+32.8wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7774…2b2cbacked Under	49c	80$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	64	48.4%31 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf593…9553backed Over	51c	79.26$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.46	2,945	47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3517…5862backed Over	62c	78.82$49 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.95	89	55.1%49 W · 40 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	60cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2396…9485backed Over	52c	78.39$41 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.72	287	51.9%149 W · 138 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…cc67backed Over	50c	73$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.65	60	38.3%23 W · 37 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	42cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under	48c	72.23$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.67	1,796	43.8%786 W · 1,010 L	-33.2wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29de…d9e6backed Over	51c	65.09$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.89	552	59.6%329 W · 223 L	+11.1wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88fb…db3abacked Over	51c	58.82$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.82	732	43.4%318 W · 414 L	-14.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over	52c	55$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.4	1,279	51.2%655 W · 624 L	-19.1wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83a…8355backed Over	49c	54.04$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.56	135	58.5%79 W · 56 L	+5.6wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad22…014abacked Over	51c	52$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.48	247	49%121 W · 126 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	38c	46.11$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.72	4,478	48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L	-47.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Over	51c	43$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.07	272	52.9%144 W · 128 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e50…c665backed Over	51c	42.89$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.23	564	35.1%198 W · 366 L	-21.3wins	-0.04per pick	39cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1f…1e14backed Over	47c	35.47$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.8	75	65.3%49 W · 26 L	+10.1wins	+0.14per pick	52cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3654…1b78backed Over	61c	30.2$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.8	268	57.1%153 W · 115 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7319…c664backed Over	51c	30$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.7	309	28.5%88 W · 221 L	-46.7wins	-0.15per pick	44cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	34-0.14 edge/pick
0xa6db…3155backed Over	51c	28.27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.85	788	54.6%430 W · 358 L	+27.1wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe481…d138backed Over	51c	27$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.24	882	47.7%421 W · 461 L	+3.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd819…2d80backed Over	51c	25$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.25	104	52.9%55 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Over	70c	24$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.2	1,814	49.1%891 W · 923 L	-26.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-12%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x357a…951ebacked Over	52c	23$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.04	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+3.2wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Over	52c	20.86$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.01	1,206	53.7%648 W · 558 L	+29.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x624b…d3dbbacked Over	49c	20.83$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.57	105	57.1%60 W · 45 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb224…dfa6backed Over	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	47	57.4%27 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x73bd…b576backed Over	51c	19.63$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.62	275	57.1%157 W · 118 L	+8.2wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…7310backed Over	67c	15$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	32	62.5%20 W · 12 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	67cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersMinnesota Twins won
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event