MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd5d9c8e62199d44bc30b50878410f1f1c5293b12b7486b4a425ab7b2a9526559
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Minnesota Twinsof Seattle Mariners, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $73,879
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,061
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,879 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 41,791$24,657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,134.34 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 19,851$8,139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,139.07 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 14,769$8,484 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,285.05 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 13,826$5,807 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,807.47 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 7,957$3,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,194.88 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 4,063$1,666 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,665.76 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 3,016$1,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,430.18 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 2,395$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 1,910$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.2 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Seattle Mariners | 50c | 1,220$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.58 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 1,054$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.69 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Minnesota Twins | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.4 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 729.06$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.29 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 609$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.69 | 187 | 41.2%77 W · 110 L | -11.2wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Seattle Mariners | 50c | 604.34$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Minnesota Twins | 46c | 536.08$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.49 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 478$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 391.92$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.86 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 383$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.03 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 341$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e79…56dcbacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Minnesota Twins | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Seattle Mariners | 54c | 267$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.18 | 794 | 42.4%337 W · 457 L | -13.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 209$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.69 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Minnesota Twins | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 318 | 44%140 W · 178 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Seattle Mariners | 51c | 185$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.23 | 554 | 48.2%267 W · 287 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 165$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.65 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Seattle Mariners | 47c | 141.1$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ec…f645backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 128$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.48 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -4.6wins | -0.27per pick | 45cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 114.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d93…fdefbacked Seattle Mariners | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 73.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 69.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.05 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 66.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d3…5639backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 64.86$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 206 | 54.4%112 W · 94 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 63.84$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Minnesota Twins | 58c | 55.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.17 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 55.17$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 52.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.48 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 51.12$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 49.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 424 | 51.9%220 W · 204 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeeaa…15cebacked Seattle Mariners | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 43.2%92 W · 121 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 46.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f7…680bbacked Seattle Mariners | 46c | 42.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9735…db39backed Seattle Mariners | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c22…7b22backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 35.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 70 | 50%35 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecb…87ddbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 30.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 487 | 51.5%251 W · 236 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Seattle Mariners | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 788 | 54.6%430 W · 358 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x201e…1a3bbacked Seattle Mariners | 48c | 28.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 27.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.41 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Minnesota Twins | 51c | 26.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Minnesota Twins | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 208 | 45.2%94 W · 114 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ef…8800backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 22.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 424 | 48.1%204 W · 220 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 21.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 17.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersMinnesota Twins won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Minnesota Twins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.