Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefa95b181c2fd39bf94955537ee8b3fea516fbe82d16e0206237bef50eed6b5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,481
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,799
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,481 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7439…b8efbacked Yes | 64c | 640.36$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.8 | 132 | 38.6%51 W · 81 L | -6.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76f4…82dabacked Yes | 37c | 565.64$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.5 | 84 | 38.1%32 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1104…1f70backed Yes | 40c | 414.45$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.04 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a89…de7dbacked Yes | 35c | 270.55$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.64 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 62c | 246$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.52 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 46c | 121.12$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.02 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…19d5backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 126 | 29.4%37 W · 89 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 14c | 93.95$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 48c | 92.7$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.19 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 14c | 85.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 66c | 68$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed No | 61c | 61.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 44c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 62c | 58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 56.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.11 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 62c | 52$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.24 | 548 | 53.1%291 W · 257 L | -28.7wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 34c | 47.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.32 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…4dedbacked Yes | 38c | 41.56$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 145 | 46.9%68 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 46c | 41.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0849…2497backed No | 63c | 40.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 39c | 30.3$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…443bbacked No | 56c | 27.54$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x637c…a5d5backed Yes | 41c | 26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…cca6backed No | 62c | 22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.64 | 264 | 41.3%109 W · 155 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 317 | 66.9%212 W · 105 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3e…5a86backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x034c…5f17backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 182 | 47.3%86 W · 96 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 31?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 31?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on July 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.