Mls · resolved market
Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefac46eae59df0b2c3857003f28dfd4042d95318cb8537c5a8b61d83429d3a86
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,270
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 22c | 1,885$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.3 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 77c | 1,844$1,417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.66 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 25c | 1,377$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.7 | 371 | 38.8%144 W · 227 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 21c | 508.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.4 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 24c | 452.83$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.62 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 10c | 317.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed Yes | 17c | 300$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 100 | 45%45 W · 55 L | +18.7wins | +0.19per pick | 26cpaid | +97.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 20c | 242.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.8 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa1…8a16backed Yes | 25c | 200.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 21c | 194.71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.6 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x482c…4da1backed Yes | 27c | 185.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Yes | 13c | 181.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 76c | 150.42$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.54 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 22c | 150$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 10c | 133.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 79c | 130.7$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd69d…fe68backed Yes | 20c | 127.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…c9a8backed No | 76c | 121.97$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 77cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 24c | 121.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 557 | 50.1%279 W · 278 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 14c | 112.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc861…f0fabacked Yes | 18c | 111.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 72.49$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed No | 76c | 71.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed Yes | 25c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed No | 75c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Yes | 25c | 68.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 33cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e8…ff03backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +5.3wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bd…b891backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…ac0cbacked No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 76c | 63.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.24 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 76c | 44.25$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 76c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7b…aec1backed No | 76c | 36.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 57cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85ad…d3fbbacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked No | 76c | 32.89$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.89 | 48 | 58.3%28 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0056…a7f7backed No | 73c | 30.47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 73c | 30.28$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a05…8573backed No | 78c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 76c | 24.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36cb…5bb7backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 66cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 76c | 15.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will San Jose Earthquakes vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-04-04?No won
- Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-04-04?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.