Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefb95fbdb065edd7c9e552abece151aafecf4e0e30bf659e43acdbf3d2bb76ec
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,281
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,281 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Falcons | 2c | 2,043$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Aurora | 50c | 2,005$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.38 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 1,500$780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780 | 345 | 44.3%153 W · 192 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Falcons | 48c | 897.2$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.86 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Team Falcons | 2c | 560$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…febfbacked Aurora | 79c | 514.26$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.66 | 216 | 50.9%110 W · 106 L | -25.3wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Aurora | 53c | 388.68$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.68 | 711 | 42.6%303 W · 408 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Team Falcons | 27c | 333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b5f…3397backed Team Falcons | 59c | 313.56$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185 | 237 | 46.8%111 W · 126 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…ef07backed Aurora | 48c | 312.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.5 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…fb00backed Team Falcons | 28c | 305.68$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05e3…f092backed Team Falcons | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora | 55c | 300$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons | 11c | 291.11$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab06…3617backed Team Falcons | 54c | 266$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -41%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74c5…6cb7backed Team Falcons | 57c | 251.31$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 57cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x49eb…e685backed Team Falcons | 54c | 239$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.06 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…0e78backed Aurora | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 412 | 48.8%201 W · 211 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Aurora | 43c | 199.99$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 969 | 42.8%415 W · 554 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03df…1299backed Team Falcons | 40c | 199.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33ec…09e2backed Aurora | 46c | 177$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 40cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 49c | 149.02$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Aurora | 48c | 145.83$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.83 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 70c | 143.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0203…8ed6backed Aurora | 46c | 128$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 124.03$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.31 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 70c | 112.43$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2448…86d3backed Aurora | 46c | 111$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Aurora | 46c | 110$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b30…5bf9backed Aurora | 44c | 109.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.33 | 66 | 66.7%44 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Aurora | 42c | 100.74$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.72 | 311 | 26%81 W · 230 L | -17.5wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5524…2f3cbacked Team Falcons | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e0a…07fdbacked Aurora | 42c | 98.83$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 243 | 49%119 W · 124 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe252…2071backed Team Falcons | 53c | 98.76$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.34 | 171 | 49.7%85 W · 86 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Falcons | 56c | 91.5$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81fc…f616backed Team Falcons | 38c | 90.29$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.69 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 71cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…2811backed Team Falcons | 56c | 89.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x999b…9a18backed Aurora | 46c | 89$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8143…760dbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…97eabacked Aurora | 44c | 83$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Team Falcons | 44c | 80.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.23 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Team Falcons | 54c | 77.65$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 75.65$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Falcons | 25c | 66.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ed9…2c29backed Aurora | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Falcons | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 353 | 61.2%216 W · 137 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…2108backed Team Falcons | 61c | 49.44$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 217 | 51.6%112 W · 105 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked Team Falcons | 40c | 44.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 48 | 20.8%10 W · 38 L | -7.3wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc95…c60fbacked Team Falcons | 56c | 41.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons | 56c | 36.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.31 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…0864backed Aurora | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 266 | 61.7%164 W · 102 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Aurora | 44c | 25.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 229 | 45.9%105 W · 124 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5043…c922backed Team Falcons | 57c | 23.49$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -7.4wins | -0.34per pick | 43cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Aurora | 69c | 23$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xacbc…f6bfbacked Aurora | 48c | 22.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Team Falcons | 60c | 19.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.