Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x87113c1f455a3ed0eb3186f20e9f235059b4115f2704251454c0cbfda7aa1e4f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $132,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,104 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x87da…53d1backed Aurora | 56c | 10,637$5,999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,638.67 | 965 | 57.4%554 W · 411 L | +49.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons | 45c | 9,719$4,390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,390.05 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Falcons | 42c | 4,438$1,864 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,863.96 | 412 | 42.2%174 W · 238 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons | 48c | 4,039$1,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,929.09 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08c2…c023backed Aurora | 68c | 3,627$2,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,176.2 | 489 | 54.6%267 W · 222 L | +23.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Falcons | 46c | 3,142$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,449.6 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Aurora | 47c | 3,007$1,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,588.28 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3833…33d1backed Aurora | 51c | 2,881$1,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.69 | 426 | 50%213 W · 213 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 53c | 2,484$1,325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,159.07 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora | 41c | 2,430$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,430.32 | 545 | 56.5%308 W · 237 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 2,209$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,075.56 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 52c | 2,109$1,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.32 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Falcons | 38c | 1,838$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.48 | 187 | 46.5%87 W · 100 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora | 58c | 1,770$1,029 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$740.44 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 1,662$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$819.47 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons | 45c | 1,661$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.56 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -7.5wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons | 27c | 1,603$435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$435.06 | 344 | 68.9%237 W · 107 L | +26.3wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons | 45c | 1,391$625 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.73 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked Aurora | 49c | 1,350$658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.77 | 421 | 45.4%191 W · 230 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2775…3652backed Team Falcons | 48c | 1,339$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.19 | 330 | 41.8%138 W · 192 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora | 57c | 1,268$722 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.49 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons | 50c | 1,209$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.83 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa97f…a818backed Aurora | 45c | 1,200$539 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661 | 587 | 44%258 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e56…55bbbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 1,050$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora | 58c | 1,038$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.96 | 998 | 44.4%443 W · 555 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons | 14c | 1,000$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 400 | 14.8%59 W · 341 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons | 42c | 961.52$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.69 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora | 59c | 891.85$524 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.32 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora | 64c | 850.11$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.61 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2687…1363backed Aurora | 70c | 800$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons | 31c | 653.34$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.26 | 666 | 62.2%414 W · 252 L | +60.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons | 46c | 647.08$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$297.36 | 696 | 44.5%310 W · 386 L | -3.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3741…517ebacked Aurora | 57c | 644.29$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.04 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Falcons | 49c | 613.89$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.02 | 198 | 47%93 W · 105 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons | 46c | 605.64$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.53 | 603 | 49.9%301 W · 302 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Falcons | 41c | 509.98$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.09 | 148 | 49.3%73 W · 75 L | -4.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Team Falcons | 43c | 477.21$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55db…8db6backed Team Falcons | 26c | 455.72$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.6 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…c323backed Aurora | 54c | 444.13$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.36 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora | 51c | 435.51$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.4 | 295 | 48.5%143 W · 152 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Aurora | 48c | 418.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.37 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed Team Falcons | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22d…3a13backed Aurora | 54c | 414.22$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.9 | 240 | 45.4%109 W · 131 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons | 9c | 404$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora | 51c | 392.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.16 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2757…55f0backed Aurora | 57c | 381$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.4 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Aurora | 57c | 364$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.52 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora | 48c | 360.99$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.09 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora | 55c | 358.18$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.18 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons | 39c | 335.52$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.52 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 56c | 309.01$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.36 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Falcons | 26c | 307.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.23 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora | 62c | 300$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 230 | 50.9%117 W · 113 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 378 | 11.1%42 W · 336 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 53c | 300$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 51c | 299.98$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.99 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Team Falcons | 8c | 299.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 291.04$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons | 49c | 288.96$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.59 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3870…c3dbbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 277.08$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5799…db25backed Team Falcons | 44c | 262.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 460 | 49.8%229 W · 231 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Falcons | 51c | 262.49$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.87 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473f…9892backed Aurora | 57c | 256.6$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.01 | 500 | 53%265 W · 235 L | +14.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb638…5213backed Aurora | 45c | 247$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -5.2wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -69.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…5bc1backed Team Falcons | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe76d…5a75backed Team Falcons | 51c | 219.08$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.43 | 1,248 | 44.4%554 W · 694 L | +17.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora | 52c | 213.13$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.3 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61fa…7f62backed Aurora | 48c | 208.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 464 | 51.5%239 W · 225 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60e3…57b5backed Aurora | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 348 | 60.1%209 W · 139 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ba…d369backed Aurora | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 146 | 48.6%71 W · 75 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -14%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7756…d00abacked Aurora | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 251 | 47.4%119 W · 132 L | +12.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x930e…38cfbacked Team Falcons | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 370 | 18.9%70 W · 300 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Team Falcons | 47c | 200$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Falcons | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 150 | 51.3%77 W · 73 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Aurora | 41c | 199.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35e…a1e8backed Aurora | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons | 58c | 195.97$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora | 42c | 189.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 630 | 32.5%205 W · 425 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5c84backed Aurora | 55c | 181.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.85 | 264 | 53%140 W · 124 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Aurora | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.82 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora | 55c | 171.77$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Aurora | 52c | 169.23$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.23 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc8…67f7backed Aurora | 63c | 158.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 191 | 62.8%120 W · 71 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbde7…cf8abacked Team Falcons | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 18cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Falcons | 30c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.5 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons | 54c | 150$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 290 | 47.9%139 W · 151 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Team Falcons | 56c | 144.64$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…7deebacked Aurora | 52c | 139.13$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.78 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf0…b959backed Team Falcons | 41c | 135$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.99 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc97…2811backed Aurora | 76c | 131.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bef…be32backed Team Falcons | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team Falcons | 14c | 122.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Aurora | 28c | 118.49$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora | 48c | 115.86$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 368 | 51.6%190 W · 178 L | +25.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed Aurora | 65c | 114.28$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons | 32c | 110$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f0…2923backed Aurora | 48c | 104.52$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 114 | 43.9%50 W · 64 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons | 45c | 104.44$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons | 44c | 101.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.