TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$132,104

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $132,104 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 161 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x87da…53d1backed Aurora56c10,637$5,999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,638.6796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons45c9,719$4,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,390.052,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Falcons42c4,438$1,864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,863.9641242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons48c4,039$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.0951751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Aurora68c3,627$2,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,176.248954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Falcons46c3,142$1,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,449.622643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed Aurora47c3,007$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,588.282548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Aurora51c2,881$1,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.6942650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora53c2,484$1,325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.0780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Aurora41c2,430$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.3254556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons49c2,209$1,076 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,075.561,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora52c2,109$1,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,012.3253451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x567e…e8fbbacked Team Falcons38c1,838$701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.4818746.5%87 W · 100 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Aurora58c1,770$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$740.442,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Falcons49c1,662$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$819.4786949%426 W · 443 L-3.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Falcons45c1,661$748 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.5611839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2586…f071backed Team Falcons27c1,603$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.0634468.9%237 W · 107 L+26.3wins+0.08per pick61cpaid+2.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons45c1,391$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.731,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Aurora49c1,350$658 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.7742145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Falcons48c1,339$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.1933041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Aurora57c1,268$722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.4955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons50c1,209$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.8344149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Aurora45c1,200$539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66158744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e56…55bbbacked Team Falcons48c1,050$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001637.5%6 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-26.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Aurora58c1,038$602 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$435.9699844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc75a…1ab2backed Team Falcons14c1,000$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540014.8%59 W · 341 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick12cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons42c961.52$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.691,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Aurora59c891.85$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.3218362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Aurora64c850.11$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.611,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Aurora70c800$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24035758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons31c653.34$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.2666662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Team Falcons46c647.08$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.3669644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3741…517ebacked Aurora57c644.29$367 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.0437047%174 W · 196 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Team Falcons49c613.89$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0219847%93 W · 105 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons46c605.64$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.5360349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x47c6…2fe4backed Team Falcons41c509.98$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.0914849.3%73 W · 75 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Falcons43c477.21$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2071,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x55db…8db6backed Team Falcons26c455.72$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.63360.6%20 W · 13 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b9b…c323backed Aurora54c444.13$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.363053.3%16 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.11per pick64cpaid-20.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Aurora51c435.51$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.429548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Aurora48c418.37$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.3714251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x77f2…eec6backed Team Falcons48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20055457.8%320 W · 234 L+12.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Aurora54c414.22$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.924045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Falcons9c404$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.911,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Aurora51c392.16$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.1664149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2757…55f0backed Aurora57c381$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.412454.8%68 W · 56 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e19…d2b0backed Aurora57c364$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.5212547.2%59 W · 66 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora48c360.99$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.0933549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Aurora55c358.18$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1841655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons39c335.52$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.5245139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora56c309.01$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.3672154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Falcons26c307.23$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.237560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Aurora62c300$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11523050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons15c300$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons53c300$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15880742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora51c299.98$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.9939660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Team Falcons8c299.02$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.16144.3%27 W · 34 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Falcons48c291.04$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons49c288.96$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.5945046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3870…c3dbbacked Team Falcons47c277.08$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1312937.9%11 W · 18 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick54cpaid-42.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Falcons44c262.83$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11646049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Falcons51c262.49$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.8756243.2%243 W · 319 L+14.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Aurora57c256.6$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.0150053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb638…5213backed Aurora45c247$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.853215.6%5 W · 27 L-5.2wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-69.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Team Falcons43c232.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10012638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Falcons51c219.08$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.431,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3936654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Aurora52c213.13$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.386659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x61fa…7f62backed Aurora48c208.88$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.8846451.5%239 W · 225 L-12.1wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x60e3…57b5backed Aurora49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0834860.1%209 W · 139 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Aurora50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10014648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7756…d00abacked Aurora48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10425147.4%119 W · 132 L+12.3wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x930e…38cfbacked Team Falcons15c200$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3037018.9%70 W · 300 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-24%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Team Falcons47c200$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9340745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c7…bf04backed Team Falcons55c199.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11015051.3%77 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x02a4…6854backed Aurora41c199.99$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1171,79755.8%1,003 W · 794 L+37.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd35e…a1e8backed Aurora50c199.98$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.991963.2%12 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa474…32cbbacked Team Falcons58c195.97$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6653844.4%239 W · 299 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Aurora42c189.99$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.863032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Aurora55c181.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8526453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Aurora55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8238653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora55c171.77$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.617252.8%38 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Aurora52c169.23$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.2312661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cc8…67f7backed Aurora63c158.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3319162.8%120 W · 71 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbde7…cf8abacked Team Falcons15c150$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.52532%8 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.14per pick18cpaid+47.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Falcons30c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.57225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fd3…3d7abacked Team Falcons54c150$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.529047.9%139 W · 151 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Falcons56c144.64$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8133644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb15f…7deebacked Aurora52c139.13$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.785552.7%29 W · 26 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf0…b959backed Team Falcons41c135$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.993141.9%13 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc97…2811backed Aurora76c131.71$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.712560%15 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bef…be32backed Team Falcons49c122.45$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6013449.3%66 W · 68 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team Falcons14c122.13$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.17440.5%30 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Aurora28c118.49$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.555147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Aurora48c115.86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.1636851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Aurora65c114.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7860251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons32c110$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.214744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f0…2923backed Aurora48c104.52$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.8511443.9%50 W · 64 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons45c104.44$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4773554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons44c101.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.