Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x959b562fb7189235b10b490bba5eaf3b115a10e584020bd426fd073c31a7ae45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,387
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,387 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora | 47c | 5,852$2,724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,127.87 | 337 | 46.3%156 W · 181 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora | 50c | 4,030$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,030.13 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1776…e557backed Aurora | 44c | 3,850$1,706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,144.49 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a9…3f60backed Team Falcons | 56c | 3,578$2,004 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,003.87 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c1…dba0backed Team Falcons | 54c | 2,500$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 226 | 43.8%99 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Falcons | 14c | 2,270$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.82 | 504 | 49.2%248 W · 256 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons | 40c | 2,147$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$858.8 | 451 | 39.2%177 W · 274 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons | 35c | 1,891$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.1 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora | 49c | 1,886$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.15 | 573 | 55.5%318 W · 255 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb517…434bbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 1,843$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092.55 | 228 | 42.1%96 W · 132 L | -25.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons | 21c | 1,797$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.32 | 1,521 | 37.9%576 W · 945 L | -57.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora | 60c | 1,667$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.67 | 203 | 67%136 W · 67 L | +14.8wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d3f…ab65backed Team Falcons | 53c | 1,600$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.77 | 97 | 49.5%48 W · 49 L | -7.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8120…54c9backed Team Falcons | 57c | 1,476$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 79 | 41.8%33 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons | 52c | 1,356$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701.55 | 1,821 | 45%820 W · 1,001 L | +33.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons | 14c | 1,279$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x782f…b46abacked Team Falcons | 13c | 1,185$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.2 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora | 45c | 999.95$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.97 | 804 | 43.9%353 W · 451 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons | 52c | 995.05$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.94 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons | 52c | 947.2$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.54 | 441 | 49.4%218 W · 223 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168b…0acfbacked Team Falcons | 59c | 900$531 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531 | 183 | 62.8%115 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora | 48c | 810$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.3 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons | 50c | 700$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347 | 386 | 53.9%208 W · 178 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons | 6c | 699.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons | 35c | 570$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.5 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Aurora | 40c | 526.9$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313.7 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed Aurora | 60c | 500.33$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.33 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…5176backed Team Falcons | 55c | 451.61$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -6.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons | 9c | 440$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.6 | 147 | 44.9%66 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Falcons | 9c | 410$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora | 47c | 363.02$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.43 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a2…5bc1backed Team Falcons | 29c | 344.69$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 126 | 38.9%49 W · 77 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora | 46c | 326.09$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 721 | 54%389 W · 332 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Aurora | 47c | 321.42$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.88 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 316.64$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.82 | 74 | 40.5%30 W · 44 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons | 53c | 299.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 298.49$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.2 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora | 66c | 296.61$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c01…8c6cbacked Team Falcons | 55c | 289.09$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3091…748dbacked Team Falcons | 8c | 230$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.7wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora | 47c | 223.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.4 | 1,197 | 59.2%709 W · 488 L | +63.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d19…296ebacked Team Falcons | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 71%22 W · 9 L | +7.4wins | +0.24per pick | 47cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons | 52c | 217.76$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.66 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora | 48c | 210.46$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.46 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed Team Falcons | 55c | 209.09$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons | 40c | 209.01$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a57…968cbacked Team Falcons | 28c | 200$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 200 | 43.5%87 W · 113 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00c8…a75fbacked Team Falcons | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d8d…9fb0backed Team Falcons | 39c | 200$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 86 | 22.1%19 W · 67 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.2 | 396 | 60.1%238 W · 158 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons | 53c | 200$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 807 | 42.6%344 W · 463 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Falcons | 55c | 200$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 75 | 60%45 W · 30 L | +9.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8b29…76a6backed Team Falcons | 7c | 199.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 28cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons | 41c | 181.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 864 | 51.7%447 W · 417 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4761…6462backed Team Falcons | 40c | 155$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Aurora | 45c | 154.35$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.35 | 485 | 39.2%190 W · 295 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dde…cff5backed Team Falcons | 53c | 152$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.56 | 336 | 44%148 W · 188 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4462…7807backed Team Falcons | 30c | 151.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 126 | 50.8%64 W · 62 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Falcons | 53c | 150$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.5 | 479 | 51.8%248 W · 231 L | +17.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd417…327abacked Team Falcons | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Falcons | 11c | 129$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 735 | 54.7%402 W · 333 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0be2…d514backed Aurora | 47c | 99.07$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.6 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5c…786abacked Aurora | 46c | 80.9$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.69 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa157…8641backed Team Falcons | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200e…e21dbacked Team Falcons | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 94 | 43.6%41 W · 53 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d85…c436backed Team Falcons | 39c | 77.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.43 | 508 | 32.9%167 W · 341 L | -14.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Team Falcons | 35c | 72.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 296 | 56.1%166 W · 130 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13aa…88d6backed Aurora | 70c | 63.56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 187 | 69%129 W · 58 L | +20.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7c90…f87cbacked Aurora | 46c | 60.39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Team Falcons | 41c | 57.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.69 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x9d9a…6e9ebacked Aurora | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.08 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Aurora | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc393…590abacked Aurora | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 238 | 49.6%118 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe3…b958backed Aurora | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Team Falcons | 40c | 42.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x824d…1271backed Team Falcons | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 240 | 26.7%64 W · 176 L | -30.5wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3e2d…fb60backed Aurora | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 504 | 44%222 W · 282 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Falcons | 47c | 36.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons | 55c | 36.68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0030…04e9backed Team Falcons | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 341 | 52.2%178 W · 163 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00b7…5b93backed Team Falcons | 42c | 34.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Falcons | 55c | 34.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 508 | 55.5%282 W · 226 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4583…d36fbacked Aurora | 48c | 33.33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.33 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Falcons | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac17…eccabacked Team Falcons | 43c | 27.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 174 | 46%80 W · 94 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c3…a6e8backed Aurora | 46c | 27.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 378 | 51.1%193 W · 185 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed Team Falcons | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 604 | 60.6%366 W · 238 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Aurora | 51c | 26.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 224 | 56.3%126 W · 98 L | +11.9wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a8f…ad3ebacked Team Falcons | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e3d…bbfabacked Aurora | 77c | 23.35$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.38 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc8…df60backed Team Falcons | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d74…a01fbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 20.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ad…827cbacked Team Falcons | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 311 | 43.4%135 W · 176 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…3411backed Team Falcons | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 70 | 68.6%48 W · 22 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons (BO2) - ESL One Birmingham Group BAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Total Kills Over/Under 48.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.