TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Auroraof Aurora, Team Falcons
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$81,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,387 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dcf…c556backed Aurora47c5,852$2,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.8733746.3%156 W · 181 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4572…83ffbacked Aurora50c4,030$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,030.1353451.7%276 W · 258 L+2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1776…e557backed Aurora44c3,850$1,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.492450%12 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…3f60backed Team Falcons56c3,578$2,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,003.872548%12 W · 13 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Team Falcons54c2,500$1,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,35022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Team Falcons14c2,270$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.8250449.2%248 W · 256 L+0.7wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Team Falcons40c2,147$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$858.845139.2%177 W · 274 L+0.9wins0.00per pick39cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons35c1,891$655 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.12,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xccf5…42f2backed Aurora49c1,886$919 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$967.1557355.5%318 W · 255 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Falcons59c1,843$1,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,092.5522842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Team Falcons21c1,797$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.321,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Aurora60c1,667$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.6720367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d3f…ab65backed Team Falcons53c1,600$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.779749.5%48 W · 49 L-7.3wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-16.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Team Falcons57c1,476$836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8367941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Falcons52c1,356$702 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701.551,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons14c1,279$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17946649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x782f…b46abacked Team Falcons13c1,185$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.25750.9%29 W · 28 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Aurora45c999.95$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$549.9780443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Falcons52c995.05$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.9451751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Team Falcons52c947.2$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.5444149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Falcons59c900$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53118362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Aurora48c810$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$424.333549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons50c700$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34738653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…9867backed Team Falcons6c699.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4592561.2%566 W · 359 L+53.8wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdca4…1c68backed Team Falcons35c570$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.564149.9%320 W · 321 L+1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Aurora40c526.9$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.72,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Aurora60c500.33$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200.331,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed Team Falcons55c451.61$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2498543.5%37 W · 48 L-6.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-11.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbb11…66cbbacked Team Falcons9c440$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.614744.9%66 W · 81 L+0.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x62c7…d64fbacked Team Falcons9c410$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.677225%18 W · 54 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-23.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd73e…bb87backed Aurora47c363.02$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.437252.8%38 W · 34 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a2…5bc1backed Team Falcons29c344.69$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9612638.9%49 W · 77 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d44…49e6backed Aurora46c326.09$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$176.0972154%389 W · 332 L-8.8wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Aurora47c321.42$153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.8814251.4%73 W · 69 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Team Falcons53c316.64$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.827440.5%30 W · 44 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Falcons53c299.99$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15961548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Falcons53c298.49$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.286659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Aurora66c296.61$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.741,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c01…8c6cbacked Team Falcons55c289.09$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1594452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3091…748dbacked Team Falcons8c230$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.318923.8%45 W · 144 L-13.7wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Aurora47c223.4$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.41,19759.2%709 W · 488 L+63.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d19…296ebacked Team Falcons9c222.22$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203171%22 W · 9 L+7.4wins+0.24per pick47cpaid+44.4%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1709…c148backed Team Falcons52c217.76$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6648352.4%253 W · 230 L-2.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbaa5…a51abacked Aurora48c210.46$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.4636654.1%198 W · 168 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1197…8311backed Team Falcons55c209.09$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11512661.1%77 W · 49 L+4.8wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+2.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons40c209.01$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4571454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Team Falcons28c200$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5720043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00c8…a75fbacked Team Falcons41c200$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$823638.9%14 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Team Falcons39c200$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$788622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Aurora60c200$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.239660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons53c200$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10680742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc33…aa3ebacked Team Falcons55c200$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1097560%45 W · 30 L+9.1wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+18.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8b29…76a6backed Team Falcons7c199.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick28cpaid+37.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons41c181.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7586451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4761…6462backed Team Falcons40c155$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6220%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Aurora45c154.35$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.3548539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Team Falcons53c152$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.5633644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4462…7807backed Team Falcons30c151.52$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4512650.8%64 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5de7…5417backed Team Falcons53c150$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.547951.8%248 W · 231 L+17.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd417…327abacked Team Falcons14c150$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110641.5%44 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-20.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f8…0e1fbacked Team Falcons11c129$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.199339.8%37 W · 56 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x05d3…c06abacked Team Falcons55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5573554.7%402 W · 333 L-3.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0be2…d514backed Aurora47c99.07$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.611943.7%52 W · 67 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5c…786abacked Aurora46c80.9$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.691747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa157…8641backed Team Falcons25c80$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206131.1%19 W · 42 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-22.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200e…e21dbacked Team Falcons32c78.13$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259443.6%41 W · 53 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d85…c436backed Team Falcons39c77.53$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.4350832.9%167 W · 341 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x93dc…3728backed Team Falcons35c72.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2529656.1%166 W · 130 L+18.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x13aa…88d6backed Aurora70c63.56$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.0918769%129 W · 58 L+20.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+18.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7c90…f87cbacked Aurora46c60.39$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.611747.1%8 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Team Falcons41c57.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.691,03416.3%169 W · 865 L-158.1wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-51%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x9d9a…6e9ebacked Aurora48c52.08$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.083860.5%23 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x72c2…5e74backed Aurora46c50$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2779343.6%346 W · 447 L+38.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0702…e5eabacked Aurora48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2640745.5%185 W · 222 L-1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc393…590abacked Aurora45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4423849.6%118 W · 120 L-6.9wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe3…b958backed Aurora46c43.48$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c56…0615backed Team Falcons40c42.78$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176431.3%20 W · 44 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick41cpaid-25.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x824d…1271backed Team Falcons46c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.424026.7%64 W · 176 L-30.5wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-42.9%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x3e2d…fb60backed Aurora47c40$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.250444%222 W · 282 L-7.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed Team Falcons47c36.77$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.191,01345.5%461 W · 552 L-46.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons55c36.68$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0030…04e9backed Team Falcons55c36.36$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2034152.2%178 W · 163 L+7.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00b7…5b93backed Team Falcons42c34.55$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.518852.3%46 W · 42 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa0f5…57e2backed Team Falcons55c34.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1950855.5%282 W · 226 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4583…d36fbacked Aurora48c33.33$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.339053.3%48 W · 42 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc869…bc8dbacked Team Falcons47c31.91$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1537441.2%154 W · 220 L-17.2wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-19.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xac17…eccabacked Team Falcons43c27.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1217446%80 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc6c3…a6e8backed Aurora46c27.29$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7437851.1%193 W · 185 L-1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3c5…f095backed Team Falcons55c27.27$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1560460.6%366 W · 238 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Aurora51c26.75$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9922456.3%126 W · 98 L+11.9wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2a8f…ad3ebacked Team Falcons40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e3d…bbfabacked Aurora77c23.35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.382748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc8…df60backed Team Falcons54c22.22$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126241.9%26 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d74…a01fbacked Team Falcons48c20.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0720%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x10ad…827cbacked Team Falcons53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.631143.4%135 W · 176 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ca7…3411backed Team Falcons54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.87068.6%48 W · 22 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.