Mls · resolved market
Will Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefc03095f921eb0b4d1623d4e97aad2a8bc7a007819aab34642392a6d839e025
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,972
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,675
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,972 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed No | 79c | 1,799$1,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,421.49 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x835b…118fbacked Yes | 50c | 1,500$748 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$752.5 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 24c | 1,100$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3116…b30dbacked No | 76c | 1,100$836 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$836 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94c1…8036backed Yes | 72c | 694.44$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.44 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked No | 32c | 534.56$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 132 | 28.8%38 W · 94 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 19c | 452$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.88 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 60c | 408.66$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.62 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed No | 19c | 314.05$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.67 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 75c | 313.18$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.95 | 352 | 47.7%168 W · 184 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked No | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 22c | 203.11$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.16 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b3…6237backed Yes | 64c | 194.39$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.82 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -38%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed No | 68c | 178.09$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.66 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.4wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Yes | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b0…d8dbbacked No | 20c | 150$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c6…2e9fbacked Yes | 59c | 133.92$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.91 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d91…cdebbacked No | 15c | 130$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 28cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked No | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed No | 20c | 130$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 60c | 119.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.07 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 31c | 115$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed No | 19c | 113.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 34c | 109.09$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb9…dd8ebacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked No | 69c | 100$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Yes | 20c | 97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.38 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed Yes | 49c | 87.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.66 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc785…4ef2backed Yes | 79c | 86.75$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 172 | 44.8%77 W · 95 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4281…1a5abacked No | 80c | 84.28$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked No | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 27c | 69.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c41…41b2backed Yes | 21c | 61.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e4…2e5bbacked Yes | 62c | 55$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 273 | 44.3%121 W · 152 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd3…226ebacked Yes | 46c | 46$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +30%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23de…0124backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 46c | 38.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.73 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1fd…10ccbacked Yes | 49c | 23.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.95 | 26 | 76.9%20 W · 6 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 61cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 48c | 21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 198 | 52.5%104 W · 94 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 76c | 15.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Minnesota United FC vs. San Diego FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Minnesota United FC win on 2026-08-01?No won
- Will San Diego FC win on 2026-08-01?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.