Tennis · resolved market
Australian Open Women's: Rebeka Masarova vs Alina Charaeva
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd4204a5c2abb05fcaada237d72e8eff53b9b70eee497acff3d0aca57696a9e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Masarovaof Masarova, Charaeva
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,466
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,994
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,466 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Charaeva | 44c | 6,120$2,696 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695.71 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Masarova | 30c | 2,830$848 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,982.13 | 4,426 | 51.8%2,291 W · 2,135 L | +136.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Charaeva | 47c | 2,026$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.87 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Charaeva | 50c | 1,866$931 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$931.04 | 470 | 57.2%269 W · 201 L | +16.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Masarova | 64c | 1,715$1,095 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$619.71 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Charaeva | 17c | 1,243$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.64 | 1,768 | 43.2%764 W · 1,004 L | +2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Masarova | 74c | 824$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.22 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Charaeva | 42c | 665.37$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.26 | 451 | 47.2%213 W · 238 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Masarova | 60c | 605.26$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.6 | 161 | 50.3%81 W · 80 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Charaeva | 33c | 588.65$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.97 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Charaeva | 38c | 572.62$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.46 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Masarova | 74c | 414.53$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.22 | 1,218 | 41.1%500 W · 718 L | -30.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdb…a90dbacked Charaeva | 24c | 402$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.72 | 269 | 21.2%57 W · 212 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Masarova | 77c | 387.17$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.19 | 2,489 | 45.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L | -27.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Charaeva | 41c | 303.92$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.57 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd902…d076backed Masarova | 24c | 248.24$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.73 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1206…eaeebacked Charaeva | 52c | 204.65$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.61 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed Charaeva | 30c | 199.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 174 | 32.2%56 W · 118 L | -15.1wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -22%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Masarova | 80c | 180$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Masarova | 16c | 160.13$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 276 | 27.2%75 W · 201 L | -25.2wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0df1…54ccbacked Charaeva | 22c | 130.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Masarova | 25c | 128.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.17 | 126 | 27.8%35 W · 91 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9236…da58backed Charaeva | 41c | 123.05$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1969…a09cbacked Masarova | 21c | 104.76$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.76 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…26f0backed Masarova | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 138 | 16.7%23 W · 115 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | +46%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Masarova | 68c | 99.19$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.99 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f78…bfcabacked Masarova | 25c | 97.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.9 | 87 | 13.8%12 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa21e…0b18backed Charaeva | 22c | 63.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.19per pick | 34cpaid | -50%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Charaeva | 36c | 60.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Masarova | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc7…55f6backed Masarova | 65c | 50.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9227…56bebacked Masarova | 77c | 44.87$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 75cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb815…342fbacked Masarova | 70c | 42.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac0…540abacked Masarova | 75c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 77cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ab…f5c1backed Masarova | 67c | 38.81$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 219 | 49.3%108 W · 111 L | -10.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Masarova | 70c | 36.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 78 | 56.4%44 W · 34 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…3648backed Charaeva | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 51.6%80 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa675…f477backed Masarova | 37c | 33.89$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd2…e8e8backed Charaeva | 40c | 29.7$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Charaeva | 62c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ada…43b0backed Masarova | 72c | 26.04$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 238 | 52.1%124 W · 114 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a58…149dbacked Charaeva | 45c | 24.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…d0d6backed Masarova | 69c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ee…6899backed Masarova | 52c | 20.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16e9…aeefbacked Masarova | 69c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…6b1abacked Masarova | 64c | 18.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.68 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…d84dbacked Masarova | 68c | 16.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…196bbacked Masarova | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Australian Open Women's: Rebeka Masarova vs Alina Charaevathis page
- Masarova vs. Charaeva: Match O/U 21.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.