Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Portland State Vikings vs. Montana Grizzlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd718a590d8d5cbab006aeeaf38da27542d217bb1316f1f877b7ee0a810b1ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Montana Grizzliesof Portland State Vikings, Montana Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,836
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,378
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,836 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x161a…4103backed Portland State Vikings | 51c | 2,624$1,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,334.72 | 2,012 | 50%1,006 W · 1,006 L | +22.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Montana Grizzlies | 63c | 2,065$1,295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.62 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Portland State Vikings | 36c | 1,371$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$487.62 | 3,380 | 49.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L | +30.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cb…d096backed Portland State Vikings | 40c | 1,368$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$551.36 | 349 | 43.3%151 W · 198 L | -15.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Portland State Vikings | 37c | 1,136$417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$417.21 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198c…6a94backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 1,133$595 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.39 | 188 | 46.8%88 W · 100 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Portland State Vikings | 48c | 994.97$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.28 | 1,058 | 55.8%590 W · 468 L | +34.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 836.6$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.51 | 1,446 | 43.4%627 W · 819 L | +10.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Portland State Vikings | 48c | 807.88$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.78 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Montana Grizzlies | 56c | 577.77$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.36 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Montana Grizzlies | 66c | 267.63$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.02 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 257.73$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.4 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Montana Grizzlies | 76c | 247.46$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.14 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x223f…2050backed Portland State Vikings | 48c | 238.61$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.74 | 709 | 36.1%256 W · 453 L | -27.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 185.73$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.44 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Portland State Vikings | 48c | 145.72$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.94 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Portland State Vikings | 33c | 116.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.43 | 1,493 | 48.7%727 W · 766 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb8…abbebacked Portland State Vikings | 37c | 107.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.41 | 1,983 | 26.4%523 W · 1,460 L | -55.5wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Montana Grizzlies | 50c | 100.12$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb5…c2adbacked Montana Grizzlies | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +5.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed Portland State Vikings | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 932 | 47.3%441 W · 491 L | -22.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Portland State Vikings | 50c | 99.42$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Portland State Vikings | 34c | 99.22$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Portland State Vikings | 48c | 99.13$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.58 | 167 | 21%35 W · 132 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 75c | 99.08$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.77 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa9…febebacked Montana Grizzlies | 59c | 96$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.36 | 318 | 37.7%120 W · 198 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Portland State Vikings | 34c | 87.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.69 | 1,531 | 50.1%767 W · 764 L | +34.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Portland State Vikings | 28c | 84.71$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 80$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 334 | 45.8%153 W · 181 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Portland State Vikings | 46c | 68.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.72 | 192 | 37%71 W · 121 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…49d2backed Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 49.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Portland State Vikings | 50c | 39.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 621 | 40.4%251 W · 370 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee07…3573backed Montana Grizzlies | 55c | 36.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Portland State Vikings | 48c | 34.51$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea52…b082backed Portland State Vikings | 51c | 29.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe496…4d8bbacked Montana Grizzlies | 52c | 20.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 179 | 45.8%82 W · 97 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Portland State Vikings vs. Montana Grizzliesthis page
- Portland State Vikings vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 142.5Under won
- Portland State Vikings vs. Montana Grizzlies: O/U 143.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.