Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on March 25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeff2b03d3c0bea6adebd4c3ecb74733b94ea9691aa723d9b84444d2fa8356c8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,626
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,626 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2602…0ff3backed No | 14c | 10,991$1,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,538.8 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -63.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 10c | 954.99$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.39 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x594e…1c11backed Yes | 41c | 508.81$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.47 | 661 | 44.5%294 W · 367 L | +57.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ded…e26ebacked No | 44c | 439.95$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 27c | 416.76$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 35c | 367.45$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7919…ca3fbacked No | 32c | 350.2$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.06 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 12c | 340.74$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 310.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.25 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 21c | 298.34$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.12 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 52c | 282$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.56 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 77c | 258.9$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.9 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 25c | 248.44$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6b33…044ebacked Yes | 70c | 236.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.52 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0f…1147backed No | 13c | 199.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.7 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 48c | 183.1$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 72c | 165.09$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 165.05$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.85 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 19c | 160$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.76 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 159.74$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.29 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x05a0…636abacked No | 34c | 156.82$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 57c | 140.61$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.81 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0138…f2bcbacked No | 31c | 139$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.37 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…d405backed Yes | 41c | 122.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.44 | 102 | 47.1%48 W · 54 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 32c | 121.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.57 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e9…9c03backed No | 24c | 117.64$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -78.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 63c | 106.63$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 105.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61e2…d4e6backed No | 30c | 105$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 57c | 102.81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7b…e799backed No | 36c | 102.56$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.63 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 66cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76a6…b7dcbacked Yes | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.21 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7e…8a3cbacked No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45c9…a3d1backed Yes | 66c | 88.5$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.31 | 275 | 60%165 W · 110 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 73c | 86.8$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.83 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x483d…65f2backed Yes | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 43 | 44.2%19 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 30c | 80$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4210…dd70backed No | 33c | 75.51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 170 | 40%68 W · 102 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe4…f88dbacked Yes | 59c | 72.18$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 69.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 74c | 66.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad7…9d4cbacked Yes | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked No | 22c | 64.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked Yes | 50c | 61.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 43c | 60.29$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 77c | 60.2$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x624e…e95cbacked Yes | 61c | 58.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.74 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 43c | 54.96$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda66…4aeebacked Yes | 73c | 54.55$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.55 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 72cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 69c | 54.11$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 23c | 54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9c…d0cfbacked No | 43c | 50.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.37 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 42c | 50.04$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.27 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9837…701ebacked No | 22c | 48.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 56 | 69.6%39 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7538…1b17backed No | 43c | 46.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 42c | 45.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.09 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51a1…8981backed No | 47c | 45.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda65…c7aebacked Yes | 69c | 43.62$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.62 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadd9…8b81backed Yes | 70c | 42$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 71cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 62c | 40.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 34c | 38.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdc…0c65backed No | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74c4…c285backed No | 31c | 33.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 47c | 33.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4f55…4213backed Yes | 73c | 32.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 76c | 32.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 45c | 31.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…1ee7backed Yes | 65c | 30.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7723…c6d8backed Yes | 80c | 30.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c82…f315backed Yes | 77c | 30.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 139 | 30.2%42 W · 97 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 57c | 30.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.01 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x109c…2718backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfede…bd54backed No | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85eb…8f73backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 57c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 34c | 29.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 70c | 28.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…504dbacked No | 71c | 28.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 63 | 65.1%41 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe185…541fbacked Yes | 56c | 27.31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.9 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 60cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…ef82backed No | 51c | 26.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 74c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…10c3backed No | 80c | 25.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 402 | 42.5%171 W · 231 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d75…4742backed No | 46c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc495…b421backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8be2…214bbacked No | 43c | 24.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -4.2wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 77c | 20.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 57c | 19.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb2…14d6backed No | 76c | 19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 66cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf72f…3b4dbacked Yes | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 69c | 18.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fe2…be37backed Yes | 70c | 17.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 76c | 17.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f7…fd31backed Yes | 67c | 17.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce1…c33abacked Yes | 58c | 17.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 149 | 61.1%91 W · 58 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…c4d3backed Yes | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 68°F or higher on March 25?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 49°F or below on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 50-51°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 52-53°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 54-55°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 56-57°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 58-59°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 60-61°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 62-63°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 64-65°F on March 25?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on March 25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.