TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Natus Vincere - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Yandexof Team Yandex, Natus Vincere
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$318,119
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$361,647

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $318,119 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa5ea…d96abacked Natus Vincere44c119,574$52,210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52,210.4928748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Yandex57c73,366$41,894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,472.071,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Yandex57c19,484$11,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,378.1242650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d11…99cabacked Natus Vincere18c13,423$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,387.894734%16 W · 31 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb042…204cbacked Team Yandex55c11,220$6,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,067.954055%22 W · 18 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb3…76a9backed Team Yandex59c10,931$6,405 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,525.3251751.3%265 W · 252 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Natus Vincere41c10,573$4,335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,334.8489440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a0…6f8bbacked Team Yandex76c8,974$6,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,193.896569.2%45 W · 20 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2307…3934backed Team Yandex55c8,501$4,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,825.3622848.2%110 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb35…b62abacked Team Yandex57c7,741$4,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,358.5239343.3%170 W · 223 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Yandex56c6,036$3,380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,655.9880256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7645…3117backed Natus Vincere44c6,000$2,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,64015544.5%69 W · 86 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7c2…9b8dbacked Team Yandex57c5,848$3,332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,516.1425549%125 W · 130 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Natus Vincere19c5,482$1,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.572,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Natus Vincere44c4,600$2,024 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02429348.5%142 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbca8…cf14backed Natus Vincere45c4,356$1,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,960.3125248.8%123 W · 129 L-11.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-10.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Yandex56c4,155$2,327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,828.281,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x55d9…832cbacked Team Yandex55c4,000$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80041944.2%185 W · 234 L-1.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Yandex60c3,330$2,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,320.3348954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Team Yandex79c3,294$2,599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.9133549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf8…2f4abacked Natus Vincere1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305034%17 W · 33 L+5.7wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3b5c…126ebacked Team Yandex55c2,864$1,570 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.234940.8%20 W · 29 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-25.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Yandex63c2,740$1,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,015.271,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Team Yandex77c2,556$1,973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.935062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x183f…85e3backed Natus Vincere44c2,543$1,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,118.7115848.1%76 W · 82 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Team Yandex60c2,467$1,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$983.931,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Yandex56c2,337$1,309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,028.1260552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Yandex56c2,167$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.5316147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1b8…9d1fbacked Natus Vincere2c2,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4016725.7%43 W · 124 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-23.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70c1…dba0backed Natus Vincere41c2,000$820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82022643.8%99 W · 127 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Natus Vincere8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16080443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Natus Vincere44c1,980$876 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$875.7734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7714…b814backed Natus Vincere45c1,979$891 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$890.7524153.1%128 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Natus Vincere45c1,934$870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$870.349455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Yandex56c1,917$1,075 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.581,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37bd…2a26backed Natus Vincere44c1,643$723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.874365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe922…39b3backed Natus Vincere46c1,603$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.1141351.8%214 W · 199 L+1.0wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Natus Vincere45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67536547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Natus Vincere41c1,500$615 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61569644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Natus Vincere37c1,497$554 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.8179959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Natus Vincere45c1,475$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.6719742.1%83 W · 114 L-12.6wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Team Yandex66c1,454$964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490.311,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf054…eae7backed Natus Vincere37c1,441$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.0712557.6%72 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+14.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2924…0f31backed Team Yandex64c1,400$895 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.847046.6%219 W · 251 L+1.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Natus Vincere26c1,211$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.6996645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9031…554bbacked Team Yandex68c1,197$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.3110262.7%64 W · 38 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce08…510bbacked Natus Vincere44c1,188$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.5535951.3%184 W · 175 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Natus Vincere44c1,179$519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.9833541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x974f…cd80backed Natus Vincere35c1,126$397 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$397.455147.5%262 W · 289 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Team Yandex58c1,090$631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.1256548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed Natus Vincere45c1,082$487 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$486.831650%8 W · 8 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd055…28d0backed Team Yandex58c1,057$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$447.6826550.6%134 W · 131 L+12.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+6.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41a6…fbadbacked Team Yandex56c1,051$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.236949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Natus Vincere31c1,014$314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$314.4238855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Natus Vincere42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42024251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Natus Vincere40c1,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4001,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Team Yandex66c995.26$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.2935758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Team Yandex56c973.6$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$428.387742.9%33 W · 44 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-14.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe843…0699backed Natus Vincere29c959.98$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.2411131.5%35 W · 76 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4214…db99backed Natus Vincere32c959.23$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.4236343.3%157 W · 206 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f76…aea6backed Team Yandex78c919.44$717 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.7918356.8%104 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8e1…49ddbacked Natus Vincere43c917.73$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.6267043.3%290 W · 380 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3763…345fbacked Natus Vincere45c860.39$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.7942145.4%191 W · 230 L-11.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04d3…cdacbacked Team Yandex55c849.78$467 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.46631.8%21 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Natus Vincere19c836.1$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.92,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Yandex56c777.27$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.161745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x71c0…13b5backed Natus Vincere45c773.33$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-43.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdfa8…cae6backed Natus Vincere45c769.3$346 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.1911154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6277…5a3fbacked Team Yandex57c738.13$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.2826843.7%117 W · 151 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4dde…cff5backed Natus Vincere41c710.16$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.8633644%148 W · 188 L-4.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a57…968cbacked Natus Vincere37c698.08$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.2920043.5%87 W · 113 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b99…8bddbacked Natus Vincere3c635.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.4277458.5%453 W · 321 L+75.1wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Natus Vincere43c633.69$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.331,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ad…be4ebacked Team Yandex60c625.32$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.7913251.5%68 W · 64 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Team Yandex60c585.6$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.2420642.2%87 W · 119 L-0.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…fc02backed Natus Vincere30c527.44$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.1730647.4%145 W · 161 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaab1…9b4fbacked Natus Vincere46c524.42$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.238048.8%39 W · 41 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick57cpaid-15.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x00f8…2c23backed Natus Vincere37c521.18$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.4330534.4%105 W · 200 L-14.3wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb278…3ba6backed Natus Vincere2c500$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101520%3 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-60.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3fc7…62b9backed Natus Vincere41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20565441.9%274 W · 380 L-1.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Team Yandex56c481.93$270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.0550749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Natus Vincere20c443.77$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.517853.4%95 W · 83 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b12…5f8fbacked Team Yandex56c429.36$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.9229548.5%143 W · 152 L+0.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21ec…7307backed Team Yandex68c398.48$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.684858.3%28 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-7.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Natus Vincere37c388.09$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.498946.1%41 W · 48 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-10.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Team Yandex79c375.5$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.335370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x55ab…40e8backed Team Yandex66c369.11$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.1611450.9%58 W · 56 L+9.4wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5808…d235backed Team Yandex67c366.74$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.7211744.4%52 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x315f…85c6backed Natus Vincere46c361.8$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.4329347.4%139 W · 154 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Natus Vincere39c349.99$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13560251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8705…edbabacked Team Yandex64c341.75$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.3243049.1%211 W · 219 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86bc…efbcbacked Natus Vincere43c334.48$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.923555.7%131 W · 104 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Natus Vincere32c333.16$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.472,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2489…ee90backed Natus Vincere42c322.84$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.594643.5%20 W · 26 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5ea…d07fbacked Natus Vincere45c322.33$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.055749.1%28 W · 29 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a74…e456backed Team Yandex71c315.78$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.112744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa162…479dbacked Natus Vincere24c305.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.111752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe94c…1edebacked Team Yandex56c303.17$170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.413157.3%75 W · 56 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Natus Vincere42c302$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.843938.5%15 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed Natus Vincere32c301.25$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.5717330.1%52 W · 121 L-16.2wins-0.09per pick39cpaid-39.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.