Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf05b03261d7caa2b9620c33fa32392167be25c1d00caae8e6af9d2f7b1fe663f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,144
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,144 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 23c | 6,827$1,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,562.25 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 77c | 1,943$1,505 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$437.84 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 78c | 1,923$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.08 | 79 | 67.1%53 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Over | 80c | 1,880$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 75c | 1,591$1,186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.56 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Under | 24c | 727.16$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.18 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 80c | 375$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 25c | 252.77$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 80c | 187.5$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa0…aa66backed Over | 78c | 132.91$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d3…5a05backed Under | 13c | 111.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 79c | 88.61$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 75c | 75.79$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd162…72aabacked Over | 80c | 75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 21 | 76.2%16 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 65cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed Under | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 24c | 69.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7a…3ce8backed Over | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…a86bbacked Over | 73c | 54.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.63 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 25c | 47$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 32c | 44.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d13…b939backed Over | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 68cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Under | 24c | 42.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 120 | 64.2%77 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…b81dbacked Over | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 29c | 37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Over | 73c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…a572backed Over | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 107 | 71%76 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6a…5192backed Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.