Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4493ea1dd75c6585ac92a88ab5a9d0bfc7b2b593a8e608018c952d36e86573d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,519
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,519 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 60c | 1,514$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.21 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd36…a8acbacked Yes | 60c | 1,500$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 40c | 1,390$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.78 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 40c | 1,109$442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441.72 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 41c | 1,068$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.32 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Yes | 58c | 799.91$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.96 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 40c | 701.78$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.87 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 42c | 431$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.02 | 100 | 26%26 W · 74 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 62c | 323.48$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 43c | 292.31$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.46 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed No | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 40c | 234.45$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.78 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 56c | 177$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4008…2942backed Yes | 59c | 163.56$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63c5…1ecbbacked No | 41c | 150$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.5 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…c2bbbacked Yes | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 43c | 108.8$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.78 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49ca…5944backed Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 90 | 67.8%61 W · 29 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 39c | 70.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Yes | 59c | 62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Yes | 62c | 55.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.96 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…cefdbacked Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x709c…3760backed Yes | 61c | 49.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b41…764cbacked No | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c55…9a10backed Yes | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0079…b852backed Yes | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +3.2wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +18%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 33.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f57…770ebacked Yes | 61c | 32.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…9190backed Yes | 55c | 29.6$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked No | 45c | 26.59$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes | 53c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
- Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.