Bundesliga · resolved market

VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3cca4c2bf688f8dc24aae102d0f66c909db2ee2a9a95c3292d683eedd662e8b

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 7, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $51,462

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,462 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	49c	25,618$12,588 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13,029.61	3,284	42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L	-74.0wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over	47c	11,079$5,258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,257.77	191	39.8%76 W · 115 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-29.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11cf…2674backed Over	65c	9,040$5,876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,875.98	11	81.8%9 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.20per pick	61cpaid	+34.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over	33c	3,000$990 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$990	332	44.6%148 W · 184 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Under	68c	2,800$1,904 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$896	134	61.9%83 W · 51 L	+4.7wins	+0.04per pick	58cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under	70c	1,716$1,205 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$511.39	1,013	44.5%451 W · 562 L	-8.2wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7ed…6fb8backed Over	47c	1,486$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	9	66.7%6 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.12per pick	55cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84d7…298fbacked Over	32c	1,097$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.66	100	26%26 W · 74 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	28cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over	32c	957.83$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.5	751	42.5%319 W · 432 L	-26.7wins	-0.04per pick	46cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Under	67c	756.09$507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$249.51	116	44.8%52 W · 64 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under	78c	705.13$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$155.13	380	55.8%212 W · 168 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	45c	532.48$242 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.43	1,355	50.9%690 W · 665 L	+12.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over	32c	450$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.5	29	51.7%15 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44ca…907cbacked Over	33c	430$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.9	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe9e…7505backed Over	57c	388.46$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.38per pick	63cpaid	-67.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd88d…f708backed Over	46c	326.09$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over	20c	321.99$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.62	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	28cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b43…fae9backed Over	46c	321.35$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.82	12	50%6 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x236b…26b7backed Over	34c	296$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.64	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.13per pick	34cpaid	+44.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over	46c	293.48$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	50	44%22 W · 28 L	-2.9wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x72ab…30fcbacked Under	59c	293.22$173 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.22	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993a…1e2fbacked Over	35c	285.91$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.94	22	68.2%15 W · 7 L	+5.5wins	+0.25per pick	43cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under	66c	250$165 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$85	636	45.1%287 W · 349 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	67c	249.69$167 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$82.62	496	47.4%235 W · 261 L	+2.0wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xea78…a74ebacked Over	33c	215$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.95	33	45.5%15 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Over	28c	205.7$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.54	72	51.4%37 W · 35 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d3…bd58backed Over	31c	180.55$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.97	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x41a3…017dbacked Under	64c	156.25$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$56.25	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-3.0wins	-0.17per pick	61cpaid	-24.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over	41c	143.9$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	118	57.6%68 W · 50 L	+15.7wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+31.1%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9075…cfe8backed Over	54c	140.22$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.67	253	52.2%132 W · 121 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over	32c	138$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.16	341	44.6%152 W · 189 L	-8.1wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under	70c	134$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.2	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	-5.5wins	-0.07per pick	65cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over	34c	122.5$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.65	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+13.3wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+22.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Under	45c	120.66$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$65.88	306	47.1%144 W · 162 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over	34c	117.65$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	179	30.2%54 W · 125 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	31cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under	66c	117.65$78 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40	481	46.4%223 W · 258 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under	37c	112.45$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.85	192	54.7%105 W · 87 L	+8.1wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed Over	43c	108.94$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.75	25	36%9 W · 16 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	31cpaid	+18.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3a25…bb6bbacked Over	33c	107.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.48	19	42.1%8 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over	33c	107.52$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.48	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	33c	103.75$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.24	220	47.3%104 W · 116 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over	33c	100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.26	36	44.4%16 W · 20 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d9e…f53abacked Over	46c	100$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	14	71.4%10 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	66cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over	52c	99.98$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.99	112	52.7%59 W · 53 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over	42c	94.96$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.87	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+10%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Over	43c	93.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	264	33.3%88 W · 176 L	+4.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x468d…cf23backed Under	56c	89.29$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.29	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc26c…ffddbacked Over	40c	81.46$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.67	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.0wins	+0.24per pick	51cpaid	+48.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa313…1f26backed Over	34c	73.53$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over	15c	70.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	222	21.6%48 W · 174 L	-34.2wins	-0.15per pick	37cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x5565…4b3bbacked Under	51c	70.28$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.23	201	53.7%108 W · 93 L	+5.4wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Over	32c	65.9$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.09	624	52.6%328 W · 296 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over	30c	62.32$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	358	56.4%202 W · 156 L	+19.9wins	+0.06per pick	51cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c77…8f06backed Under	66c	60.61$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.61	24	54.2%13 W · 11 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	60cpaid	-10%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Over	53c	60.53$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.08	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-3.2wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under	43c	60$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34	97	42.3%41 W · 56 L	-5.7wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6483…750abacked Over	34c	60$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	38cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fd…7fefbacked Over	35c	55.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.55	2	50%1 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac5f…eb06backed Over	35c	55.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf877…77e1backed Under	67c	55$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.15	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+12.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefef…cd06backed Over	45c	51$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	17	76.5%13 W · 4 L	+3.3wins	+0.19per pick	57cpaid	+33.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2512…9030backed Over	38c	50$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under	79c	47.02$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.72	66	59.1%39 W · 27 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+8.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over	35c	43.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	79	48.1%38 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6562…4e48backed Over	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	110	65.5%72 W · 38 L	+2.8wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	33c	40.55$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	62	41.9%26 W · 36 L	-4.0wins	-0.07per pick	48cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Under	69c	40.49$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.55	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over	44c	40$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.4	119	55.5%66 W · 53 L	+6.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x15ea…c56dbacked Over	35c	39.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.76	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	44cpaid	-34.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d65…2d2bbacked Over	52c	37.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.62	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.6wins	-0.44per pick	60cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3938…c6cbbacked Under	56c	35.71$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.71	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e31…a753backed Over	35c	35$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+3.0wins	+0.20per pick	40cpaid	+67.8%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over	32c	33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	339	38.1%129 W · 210 L	-16.0wins	-0.05per pick	43cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Over	33c	33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.89	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.11per pick	26cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6fc0…8f18backed Over	34c	32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	39cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf788…6f86backed Over	61c	31.15$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	90	68.9%62 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	69cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	67c	29.57$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.76	373	44.5%166 W · 207 L	-15.1wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b14…b151backed Under	53c	28.3$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.3	14	78.6%11 W · 3 L	+2.4wins	+0.17per pick	62cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa658…f93ebacked Under	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	15	66.7%10 W · 5 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	70cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73a2…3b68backed Under	53c	26$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.2	26	57.7%15 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90b5…4e3dbacked Under	52c	21.11$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.03	21	61.9%13 W · 8 L	+2.8wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+37%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f77…f9a7backed Over	60c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	57cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b78…c6b5backed Under	73c	19.19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.18	120	64.2%77 W · 43 L	+10.5wins	+0.09per pick	55cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under	70c	15.64$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.69	96	58.3%56 W · 40 L	+3.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed Under	67c	15.12$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.99	9	88.9%8 W · 1 L	+2.8wins	+0.32per pick	57cpaid	+57%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5this page
Spread: Hamburger SV (-1.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
Spread: Hamburger SV (-2.5)VfL Wolfsburg won
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5)Hamburger SV won
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-2.5)Hamburger SV won
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Over won
VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

VfL Wolfsburg vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event