MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf077fedb553b521683378fb67c5bbb17969179e75862fd22888de672f7a50af1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,463
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,463 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Miami Marlins | 29c | 3,502$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.89 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Miami Marlins | 34c | 3,437$1,184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,252.53 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Philadelphia Phillies | 45c | 3,294$1,487 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,486.89 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0317…6289backed Philadelphia Phillies | 71c | 3,158$2,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,239.47 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 46cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Miami Marlins | 26c | 2,963$761 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,201.3 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Miami Marlins | 68c | 1,206$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.4 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ff…6c51backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 1,055$781 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$780.73 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa2…93ccbacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 815.57$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.22 | 248 | 44%109 W · 139 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Miami Marlins | 27c | 801.66$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$585.21 | 1,358 | 50.8%690 W · 668 L | +13.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 513$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.62 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…378abacked Miami Marlins | 26c | 513$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.62 | 508 | 52.6%267 W · 241 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08ad…208ebacked Miami Marlins | 27c | 433.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.33 | 217 | 40.1%87 W · 130 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 391.89$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 2,203 | 50.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L | +29.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 300$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 270.27$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Miami Marlins | 43c | 219.85$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.15 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Miami Marlins | 44c | 206.09$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.06 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 202.7$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 200$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…a27cbacked Miami Marlins | 8c | 187.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.5 | 107 | 19.6%21 W · 86 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x169e…de26backed Miami Marlins | 56c | 176.63$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.71 | 50 | 62%31 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4074…7d83backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.0wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Miami Marlins | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.99 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae00…f7b0backed Philadelphia Phillies | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Philadelphia Phillies | 63c | 68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.87 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 311 | 45.7%142 W · 169 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16e6…1c52backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 115 | 62.6%72 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbde5…9c38backed Philadelphia Phillies | 57c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 511 | 51.7%264 W · 247 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 43.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 133 | 48.1%64 W · 69 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…d46bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 405 | 57.8%234 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Philadelphia Phillies | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Philadelphia Phillies | 75c | 16.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 2,050 | 53.8%1,103 W · 947 L | +33.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Philadelphia Phillies | 73c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 76 | 51.3%39 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.