Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf07b500817a62979fcf5054211c1fbb81760f2c52fe7943be55c0b1bb19a511c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,220
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 38c | 837.24$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.86 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa94…3601backed Yes | 31c | 627.9$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.24 | 51 | 25.5%13 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 5c | 422.92$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.53 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 45c | 340.09$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.86 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 53c | 287.7$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.5 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 46c | 254.16$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.99 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed Yes | 56c | 248.7$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.7 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 236.1$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.91 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 22c | 210.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 48c | 187$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 8c | 177.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 62c | 161.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.56 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 139.74$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x42e5…c9a7backed Yes | 47c | 138$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.52 | 410 | 33.7%138 W · 272 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 44c | 118$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 43c | 118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.31 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 112.75$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.22 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ebb…405abacked Yes | 19c | 102.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 790 | 40.9%323 W · 467 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 102.76$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f30…fd82backed Yes | 20c | 102.45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.87 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 101$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.94 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.79 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb8…0d00backed Yes | 71c | 97$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 206 | 62.1%128 W · 78 L | -14.0wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 48c | 89.91$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…b9bebacked No | 36c | 83.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 224 | 46.4%104 W · 120 L | +31.1wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed Yes | 36c | 77.7$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 30c | 73.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.02 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 73.76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.75 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 62c | 72.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.1 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 58c | 71$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…2d49backed No | 22c | 65.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 25c | 63.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.76 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 65c | 62.6$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.55 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd938…fa19backed Yes | 40c | 56.23$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.97 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 36c | 53.18$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…afd7backed Yes | 51c | 52.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 80 | 41.3%33 W · 47 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3277…f0b6backed No | 60c | 49.87$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 40c | 49.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 78c | 48.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.65 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…cefbbacked Yes | 59c | 47.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3580…714ebacked No | 62c | 45.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 70c | 43.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x841b…a2a7backed No | 63c | 40.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.77 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 55c | 37.83$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…b52abacked No | 41c | 35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 78 | 55.1%43 W · 35 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 39c | 34.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5192…df62backed Yes | 58c | 33.88$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 71c | 32.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.56 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf9…dcdebacked Yes | 40c | 31.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.27per pick | 50cpaid | +51.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x328c…8fabbacked Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa22…2303backed Yes | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 53c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 58c | 25.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.82 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 80c | 25.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 78c | 21.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa4…5c82backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 61c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 71c | 14.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.28 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 28°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 30°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 32°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 33°C on June 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C on June 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.