World Politics · resolved market
Will SPOLU get between 23% and 26% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf0c9887f3abd02a04ef676d50111721be53c82cca554842e4613134928e5f9da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $82,008
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $77,140
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $82,008 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 56c | 32,750$18,443 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,307.27 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 12c | 10,357$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,153.33 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed No | 17c | 6,176$1,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.26 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 45c | 3,200$1,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,439.99 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked No | 10c | 3,091$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.97 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 34c | 3,086$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,039.64 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…2b81backed Yes | 10c | 1,032$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$928.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 10c | 974.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.98 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9c…1115backed Yes | 30c | 776.88$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.56 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked Yes | 13c | 754.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.9 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fbe…a406backed Yes | 14c | 682.89$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$584.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 14cpaid | +130.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb5…f200backed Yes | 45c | 673.35$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +124.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 26c | 670.82$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.66 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 10c | 630.7$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$568.84 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 12c | 576.69$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.62 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8c…5baebacked Yes | 19c | 533.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e54…a5b0backed Yes | 34c | 509.44$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.76 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc42e…56b9backed Yes | 16c | 493.4$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$413.4 | 25 | 8%2 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 22c | 356.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.16 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e1…778fbacked Yes | 32c | 350$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +211.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa48e…b476backed Yes | 15c | 343.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.9 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 74c | 340.34$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.18 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 16c | 316$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.44 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…2525backed Yes | 13c | 315.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 35cpaid | +298.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 12c | 315.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.89 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 25c | 239.5$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.82 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073d…0adebacked Yes | 21c | 234.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.04 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbd…edd9backed Yes | 18c | 182.5$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.65 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 13cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b66…4dbebacked Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6c…4d67backed Yes | 19c | 105.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 26cpaid | +135.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…26c9backed Yes | 19c | 105.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 42cpaid | +77.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee86…c85fbacked No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f0…e696backed Yes | 12c | 100$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef2…d0dabacked No | 33c | 93.01$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | +154.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be2…c5efbacked No | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -3.7wins | -0.18per pick | 37cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.33 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 80c | 43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4108…ad21backed Yes | 39c | 28.69$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad00…5eb9backed Yes | 72c | 25.08$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPOLU get between 23% and 26% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPOLU get less than 17% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.