World Politics · resolved market
Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2abd463d4058a682d30f442ad7215caa8bc1e39bf7d0d3f695fe3f283774e9b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,792
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 34c | 4,804$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.05 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb85c…b783backed Yes | 40c | 4,173$1,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,671.29 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85ab…15f9backed Yes | 41c | 2,466$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 33cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33c2…9818backed Yes | 31c | 1,328$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.63 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74b9…47cebacked No | 60c | 1,229$742 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.12 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…535bbacked Yes | 32c | 1,049$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.79 | 284 | 30.3%86 W · 198 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 67c | 753.76$502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.58 | 576 | 36.3%209 W · 367 L | -27.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Yes | 38c | 726.34$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.46 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -61%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 617.45$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.55 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5903…f218backed No | 66c | 504.99$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.76 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd188…f605backed Yes | 36c | 414.59$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -5.1wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -53%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe759…e7cabacked Yes | 29c | 354.83$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.8 | 67 | 59.7%40 W · 27 L | +6.3wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4d…4b3fbacked Yes | 33c | 347.86$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.82 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.33per pick | 43cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d48…d360backed Yes | 35c | 327.54$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 304.93$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.92 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f82cbacked Yes | 32c | 216.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.97 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes | 34c | 175.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 170.24$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked Yes | 35c | 122.25$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a4…996dbacked Yes | 35c | 112.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -5.4wins | -0.34per pick | 46cpaid | -82.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed No | 72c | 110$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cb…658ebacked No | 65c | 108$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6c4…86a9backed Yes | 33c | 108$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 96 | 31.3%30 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 23c | 105.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.34 | 118 | 50.8%60 W · 58 L | +29.2wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 73+0.20 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked No | 71c | 91.35$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…f9f1backed No | 66c | 78$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 51 | 74.5%38 W · 13 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked Yes | 26c | 73.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 199 | 57.3%114 W · 85 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31ff…0d37backed Yes | 43c | 70.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb4a…3ec6backed Yes | 30c | 66.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…391dbacked Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4317…99d8backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…cbcdbacked No | 59c | 51$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.91 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 34c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…bdafbacked Yes | 35c | 43.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed No | 67c | 42.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 200 | 51.5%103 W · 97 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 31c | 34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x210c…2edabacked No | 65c | 32.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.21 | 50 | 72%36 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.14per pick | 58cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SPOLU get between 17% and 20% of the vote in the Czech election?this page
- Will SPOLU get between 20% and 23% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPOLU get between 23% and 26% of the vote in the Czech election?Yes won
- Will SPOLU get less than 17% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
- Will SPOLU get more than 26% of the vote in the Czech election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.