Australian A League · resolved market
Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf106969410e8ca5966fc6cdbe9eeb4ab5ebb457a11729fa85a27739cf26e6117
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,338
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,338 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd91a…211cbacked Over | 18c | 2,444$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.99 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -5.6wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa529…677ebacked Under | 77c | 637.19$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.55 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 77c | 521.83$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.32 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Over | 23c | 500$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 18cpaid | +148.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 24c | 416.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 80c | 206.57$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9413…bc8cbacked Under | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 76c | 112.45$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 324 | 53.1%172 W · 152 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 98.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 80c | 87.59$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 22c | 68.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…d973backed Over | 24c | 51.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 80c | 34.81$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 76c | 28.83$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.92 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 76c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 49cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 75c | 14.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: Perth Glory FC (-1.5)Sydney FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-1.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Spread: Sydney FC (-2.5)Perth Glory FC won
- Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Sydney FC vs. Perth Glory FC: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.