Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10dca97621771dfb519f112e7b9c939b2228c8a2cf01b1998b86a41c0eb9314
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,634
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 2c | 6,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…effbbacked No | 77c | 2,459$1,890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,889.59 | 116 | 59.5%69 W · 47 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 5c | 1,172$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.93 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 6c | 1,074$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.54 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b28…d021backed No | 4c | 999.99$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 287 | 18.5%53 W · 234 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | +113.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 15c | 595.28$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 8c | 548.9$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.06 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 480$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 38c | 473.82$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.5 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 436.52$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 47c | 429.38$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.39 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 347.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.6 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 25c | 281.95$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.27 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 11c | 280.84$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.73 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 75c | 258.52$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.41 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 15c | 248$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 38c | 219.47$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 199.28$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.9 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 80c | 196$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 74c | 170.78$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.25 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 78c | 159.68$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.7 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 30c | 159.4$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.97 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 27c | 130.42$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.28 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 27c | 107.14$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.81 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 32c | 106.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.7 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.5 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 11c | 95.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d52…c5aabacked No | 39c | 93.73$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 103 | 59.2%61 W · 42 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 92.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.53 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 92.25$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.16 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d46…cf8bbacked Yes | 24c | 88.38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 77.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.82 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 45c | 74.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.72 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 30c | 65.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.9 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 31c | 63.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 34c | 55.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…1831backed Yes | 40c | 52.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 38c | 51.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ee…44a4backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 113 | 41.6%47 W · 66 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca1…17e5backed Yes | 26c | 49.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 153 | 28.1%43 W · 110 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 30c | 46.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.55 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a87…920fbacked Yes | 71c | 41.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.02 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.31per pick | 57cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 47c | 41.08$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 31c | 40.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.71 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 76c | 37.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 34.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 80c | 32.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 34c | 32.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9c…1450backed No | 75c | 30.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -21.9wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x24b7…4a73backed No | 73c | 29.7$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 32 | 78.1%25 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked No | 76c | 23.4$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 76c | 23.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 20.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26c9…910bbacked Yes | 54c | 19.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 75c | 16.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.43 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 76c | 16.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 74 | 70.3%52 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed No | 63c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd138…aac0backed No | 69c | 14.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 92 | 21.7%20 W · 72 L | -8.1wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 29°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 25°C or below on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 27°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 28°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 30°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 31°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 32°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 33°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 34°C on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.