Mls · resolved market
Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf10e8ccfb0a846b54ffb8eb62ef1130e20bf62aeb11eff36e8454bf1d2e9322b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $107,057
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,479
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,057 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 6c | 35,139$2,112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,112.23 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…61c0backed Yes | 3c | 3,998$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.36 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37d3…709abacked Yes | 3c | 3,600$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 7c | 3,531$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.94 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,691$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.54 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,296$344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.4 | 333 | 46.8%156 W · 177 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 6c | 1,387$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 8c | 1,127$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.66 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 3c | 1,098$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.27 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked Yes | 6c | 904.03$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.61 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 3c | 692$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc12e…7c8abacked Yes | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 8c | 624.84$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Yes | 14c | 552.76$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…1525backed Yes | 3c | 506$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 8c | 477.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.73 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd546…657bbacked Yes | 3c | 375$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c59…11acbacked Yes | 14c | 357.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 5c | 322.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb01…7dfbbacked Yes | 8c | 320$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 6c | 287.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…19e9backed Yes | 6c | 250$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 243 | 26.3%64 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b8…4fa4backed Yes | 5c | 229.17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0b…2500backed Yes | 5c | 210$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 36 | 22.2%8 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 14c | 190.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked Yes | 8c | 180$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25c7…9179backed Yes | 15c | 179.07$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa93e…0a8cbacked Yes | 12c | 165.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 8c | 164.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 11c | 162.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd868…7f60backed Yes | 15c | 153.33$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked Yes | 15c | 87.42$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 15c | 67.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.