Mls · resolved market
Will St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706987e59e91e9c1ad45cd14444f221ef6fc06d0177b457f911abdd9bb047ab0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $101,696
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,914
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,696 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 16c | 18,962$2,945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,945.08 | 97 | 26.8%26 W · 71 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ec5…fd53backed No | 58c | 4,820$2,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,042.55 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 13c | 4,575$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$597.52 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf387…61c0backed Yes | 14c | 4,488$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 14c | 4,232$573 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.45 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 80c | 3,066$2,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$617 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f6…a196backed No | 63c | 1,772$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.57 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 34c | 1,679$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.71 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 34c | 1,633$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.35 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Yes | 31c | 1,351$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.18 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 15c | 1,331$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.11 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67bf…f983backed No | 61c | 946.86$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.51 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 19c | 862.11$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.8 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…e279backed No | 62c | 822.81$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.76 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +4.0wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf5…2307backed No | 58c | 778.87$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.5 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.19per pick | 55cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 44c | 699.98$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.8 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3740…a935backed Yes | 53c | 548$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$292.31 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac25…147abacked Yes | 53c | 499.99$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.29 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 34c | 478.89$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.84 | 220 | 42.7%94 W · 126 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 10c | 386.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 526 | 39.5%208 W · 318 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 49c | 357.57$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.87 | 107 | 53.3%57 W · 50 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…4633backed Yes | 29c | 349.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 22c | 342.05$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Yes | 13c | 303.77$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 40c | 282.57$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.28 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa700…102bbacked Yes | 36c | 270.27$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 33c | 251.77$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.36 | 258 | 51.2%132 W · 126 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf81a…719abacked Yes | 19c | 250.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.59 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -44%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Yes | 34c | 250$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.97 | 73 | 27.4%20 W · 53 L | -6.6wins | -0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Yes | 20c | 220$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.7 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x404c…5c87backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 206 | 60.7%125 W · 81 L | +19.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdff2…2e27backed Yes | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 168 | 56%94 W · 74 L | +10.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 37c | 198.15$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.68 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cf0…cad2backed Yes | 54c | 185.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 14c | 140$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc56a…0c8dbacked Yes | 23c | 129.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…83a6backed Yes | 13c | 119.41$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 37c | 114.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.31 | 443 | 50.6%224 W · 219 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 56c | 106.57$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.89 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | +13.7wins | +0.16per pick | 45cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 78c | 105.83$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.77 | 79 | 74.7%59 W · 20 L | +10.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab8…6eaabacked Yes | 34c | 105.55$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 18c | 99.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 106 | 12.3%13 W · 93 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Yes | 13c | 96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 35c | 92$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 21c | 86.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.14 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked No | 56c | 85.71$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.71 | 239 | 53.6%128 W · 111 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…e2e0backed No | 69c | 80.47$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 18c | 77.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 111 | 44.1%49 W · 62 L | -9.4wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed Yes | 18c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 68c | 75$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Yes | 19c | 66.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fd…53dfbacked Yes | 37c | 61.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…1ffcbacked No | 61c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 31c | 49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x61ae…a11fbacked Yes | 34c | 43.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e72…09a8backed Yes | 31c | 43.41$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 77c | 43.01$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c6…19e2backed No | 57c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.76 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +97%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 96 | 60.4%58 W · 38 L | +9.4wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…224dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x856e…bd31backed No | 70c | 20.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf17d…6f86backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will St. Louis City SC vs. Sporting Kansas City end in a draw?this page
- Will Sporting Kansas City win on 2026-07-16?No won
- Will St. Louis City SC win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.