Earnings · resolved market
Will Yum Brands (YUM) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf12f1d26c9f7c02c36e0986be4e32f5adc2b30642f0f1f4dda2b5a51bf3e20dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,119
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,828
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,119 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked No | 29c | 3,712$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.9 | 471 | 38.6%182 W · 289 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 66c | 653.04$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.87 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 73c | 550$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.5 | 61 | 27.9%17 W · 44 L | -6.0wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…01bcbacked No | 43c | 541.66$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.42 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 31c | 414.18$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.48 | 760 | 37.6%286 W · 474 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x830f…cda7backed Yes | 65c | 310.85$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.41 | 27 | 92.6%25 W · 2 L | +11.3wins | +0.42per pick | 51cpaid | +100.5%equal weight | 74+0.22 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked Yes | 71c | 310$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.9 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 73c | 260.71$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.39 | 207 | 42%87 W · 120 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 36c | 223.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.5 | 312 | 29.8%93 W · 219 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed Yes | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfce…80c7backed Yes | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 342 | 37.1%127 W · 215 L | +21.4wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b91…2709backed No | 37c | 199.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.99 | 82 | 67.1%55 W · 27 L | +11.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 70c | 160$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdaa2…a56bbacked Yes | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 71c | 108$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked No | 37c | 106.31$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.33 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda20…cb8dbacked Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed Yes | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb141…aa3bbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.67 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 45c | 74$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.3 | 578 | 38.9%225 W · 353 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b50…b087backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33e…0ab8backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6152…d8f3backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a46…1b0dbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +39.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3af9…b4bbbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a2…c9b6backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x002d…47a2backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd99c…8490backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…f5bbbacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -31%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd20…6159backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 68cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc798…6254backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +61.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6b67…3998backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…0412backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbe…072ebacked Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 66cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x239f…8b82backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 65c | 44.64$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 179 | 35.2%63 W · 116 L | -14.5wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 36c | 40.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked Yes | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 53c | 38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.