MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1374b7ed82114d5ddbc6b0b23ee39694267068976144b270878cd6bb28bcd82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,721
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,747
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,721 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 45c | 912.82$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.24 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed No | 55c | 709.09$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1252…e6e0backed No | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.3wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d7f…86d2backed Yes | 43c | 300$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171 | 503 | 37.2%187 W · 316 L | -42.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x889c…e375backed No | 55c | 273.18$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 403 | 48.4%195 W · 208 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa106…5abbbacked No | 55c | 269.38$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.16 | 197 | 52.3%103 W · 94 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…00fbbacked Yes | 43c | 218.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.2 | 492 | 50.4%248 W · 244 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a88…4e57backed Yes | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed No | 57c | 192.07$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d9e…3cb9backed No | 56c | 185.43$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 43c | 118.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.5 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59a8…eb4ebacked Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 74 | 44.6%33 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 47c | 56$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 45c | 49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.06 | 374 | 44.4%166 W · 208 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf941…31ddbacked No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 48c | 27.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 59c | 26.89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25ed…3e98backed No | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 257 | 48.2%124 W · 133 L | -8.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed Yes | 48c | 25.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 422 | 41%173 W · 249 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6f…7248backed No | 64c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Metsthis page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.