MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x19b07a33d86924c1f779405df528dd0b5e4f48290b743a37a06f6f3eb070387a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Over | 48c | 7,140$3,427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,712.79 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 52c | 3,961$2,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,057.35 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under | 51c | 2,632$1,343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,342.56 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.82 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Under | 51c | 1,800$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$924 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 49c | 1,380$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$703.8 | 321 | 52%167 W · 154 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 49c | 1,224$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.49 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 49c | 1,122$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.45 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Under | 52c | 800$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 52c | 754.96$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.16 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 544.57$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.21 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 51c | 503$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.53 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Over | 67c | 499$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.67 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 439.15$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.36 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 402.17$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.54 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 73c | 358.19$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.94 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under | 49c | 336.96$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.23 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Under | 51c | 300.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 383 | 53.5%205 W · 178 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x850b…5493backed Under | 51c | 250$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.5 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 48cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf3f…1365backed Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 151 | 59.6%90 W · 61 L | +10.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe65b…271bbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 125 | 49.6%62 W · 63 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 25c | 180.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.02 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Under | 51c | 167.49$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.42 | 562 | 53.2%299 W · 263 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 52c | 152.17$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.13 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Over | 48c | 120$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3921…db37backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 48cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Under | 52c | 88$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.76 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd13c…98a7backed Over | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.21 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | -11.1wins | -0.28per pick | 59cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under | 52c | 84.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 53c | 83.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed Under | 27c | 68.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 47c | 59.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 52c | 59.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Under | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ebc…01c6backed Under | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 92 | 43.5%40 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Under | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 34c | 38.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 52c | 34.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…28f3backed Over | 48c | 29.17$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1f…4a48backed Over | 49c | 28.12$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 130 | 56.2%73 W · 57 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 21.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c03…31bbbacked Under | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed Over | 70c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Over | 71c | 17.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.