MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde8f9ddd397f6a9657f0f67f43f9d0ea75feb4da9ff01442372e536a9849213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cincinnati Redsof Cincinnati Reds, New York Mets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,216
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,256
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,216 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed New York Mets | 39c | 4,156$1,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,632.76 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed New York Mets | 60c | 1,114$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.54 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 1,074$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$644.48 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked New York Mets | 51c | 1,050$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$538.23 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cincinnati Reds | 54c | 1,027$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.13 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 1,010$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 786.62$315 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$471.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 500.4$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.42 | 1,063 | 48.2%512 W · 551 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed New York Mets | 60c | 424.33$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 376$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.38 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked New York Mets | 61c | 370.02$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.71 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked New York Mets | 60c | 325$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Cincinnati Reds | 41c | 272.39$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.96 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 261.05$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed New York Mets | 14c | 255.63$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.02 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed New York Mets | 60c | 197$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.2 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 182.02$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.09 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed New York Mets | 62c | 129.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…a9f2backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 124$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 468 | 54.5%255 W · 213 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 124$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Cincinnati Reds | 76c | 110$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4193…4853backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 846 | 51.5%436 W · 410 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed New York Mets | 37c | 97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed New York Mets | 32c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked New York Mets | 60c | 78.48$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.09 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc775…c180backed New York Mets | 42c | 77.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 48 | 33.3%16 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 242 | 48.8%118 W · 124 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 74.69$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 68.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed New York Mets | 62c | 66$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.92 | 726 | 48.1%349 W · 377 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed New York Mets | 61c | 66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed New York Mets | 61c | 63.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Cincinnati Reds | 67c | 54.49$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed New York Mets | 59c | 54.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.05 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 51.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed New York Mets | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked New York Mets | 60c | 40.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked New York Mets | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed New York Mets | 60c | 36.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed New York Mets | 60c | 35.49$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked New York Mets | 39c | 26.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked New York Mets | 61c | 26.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260b…aa9ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +9.7wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa04d…1488backed New York Mets | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 447 | 37.4%167 W · 280 L | -24.1wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked New York Mets | 61c | 22.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed New York Mets | 60c | 17.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0290…d390backed New York Mets | 61c | 16.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsCincinnati Reds won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 10.5Under won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 4.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-3.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-4.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Spread: New York Mets (-1.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. New York MetsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.