Champions League · resolved market
Will Athletic Club vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1585f89934a9bc3e8c309137c71a42920b5820e016fbecede059485dafb0e76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,512
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,860
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,512 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b5a…00f2backed Yes | 17c | 17,687$3,007 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,006.79 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 12c | 2,539$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.6 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5b…6e33backed Yes | 18c | 2,084$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375.12 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8525…bdbabacked Yes | 20c | 2,020$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.4 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ef…f3dfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,273$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 19c | 1,159$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.52 | 161 | 36%58 W · 103 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Yes | 23c | 1,055$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.48 | 93 | 36.6%34 W · 59 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Yes | 17c | 1,000$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | +12.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74dc…cc04backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Yes | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 6c | 981.29$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.16 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd2…b035backed Yes | 11c | 824.92$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08a4…5c3fbacked Yes | 17c | 757.05$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb17e…22bebacked Yes | 27c | 700$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +171.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Yes | 25c | 655.89$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.85 | 103 | 30.1%31 W · 72 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed Yes | 39c | 534.85$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c5…7d0ebacked Yes | 19c | 526.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6274…ce95backed Yes | 24c | 491.89$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 36cpaid | +71.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…86f3backed Yes | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aef…06f8backed Yes | 18c | 416.67$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6c…4b49backed Yes | 27c | 333.81$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.13 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…a780backed Yes | 23c | 256.61$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 17c | 251.43$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.74 | 139 | 27.3%38 W · 101 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 215.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 190 | 28.9%55 W · 135 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 19c | 210.53$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c7d…d6ebbacked Yes | 23c | 209.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.5wins | +0.12per pick | 33cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9760…1054backed Yes | 12c | 208.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Yes | 12c | 205.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x495f…06b0backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…a584backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72e1…20c6backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 76c | 187.99$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.3 | 132 | 61.4%81 W · 51 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…7637backed Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…cf15backed Yes | 18c | 166.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x55fb…4ec4backed Yes | 18c | 160$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 41 | 24.4%10 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked Yes | 26c | 153.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7529…5cd7backed Yes | 33c | 151.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +8.6wins | +0.25per pick | 33cpaid | +62%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xefaf…26a1backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…b120backed Yes | 18c | 138.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc0…d42fbacked Yes | 30c | 134.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed Yes | 21c | 122.8$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7773…a345backed Yes | 18c | 111.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf32…aecbbacked Yes | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes | 23c | 111$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -75%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 22c | 87.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 375 | 44%165 W · 210 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb009…34a2backed Yes | 27c | 81.95$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 35cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…a5e6backed Yes | 19c | 78.21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7513…110dbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066e…d3ddbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 54c | 58.02$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.82 | 389 | 35.2%137 W · 252 L | -12.6wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e73…e5c1backed Yes | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.0wins | -0.19per pick | 56cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 71 | 43.7%31 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2f…2f32backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d11…0c08backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b3…0476backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…0a6dbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…3e38backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf356…3effbacked No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7308…2b0abacked No | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Athletic Club vs. Qarabağ Ağdam FK end in a draw?this page
- Will Athletic Club win on 2025-10-22?Yes won
- Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-10-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.