Europa Conference League · resolved market
Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf160d5aed4b348804ec7540ebbf73244e5d4945744193537ee7424da06db2b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,232
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 79c | 3,161$2,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.22 | 2,333 | 41.7%972 W · 1,361 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 28c | 3,096$856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$855.99 | 128 | 32.8%42 W · 86 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 14c | 1,859$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.62 | 1,604 | 38.9%624 W · 980 L | -17.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 72c | 768.46$552 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.19 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 75c | 538.58$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.04 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cf…2224backed Under | 72c | 278.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.03 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 28c | 267$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Over | 30c | 226.45$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 275 | 45.8%126 W · 149 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3388…61d7backed Over | 27c | 200$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 28c | 151.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 655 | 49.8%326 W · 329 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1af3…fbe3backed Over | 30c | 97.03$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.03 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 28c | 89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,022 | 47.5%485 W · 537 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Under | 76c | 87.02$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 74c | 74$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7b…0769backed Under | 71c | 59.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.31 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Under | 76c | 55.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.56 | 191 | 63.4%121 W · 70 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bf…60f8backed Under | 78c | 50.07$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 393 | 57.5%226 W · 167 L | +17.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 72c | 47.77$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 374 | 46.8%175 W · 199 L | +27.1wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1f78…3546backed Over | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9db0…93f9backed Under | 74c | 21.08$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.48 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +4.4wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 76c | 20.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 27 | 74.1%20 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 67cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1010…d793backed Under | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 84 | 61.9%52 W · 32 L | +9.5wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 74c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 580 | 61.9%359 W · 221 L | +22.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 74c | 15.45$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.96 | 852 | 60.9%519 W · 333 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb9…c170backed Under | 80c | 12.52$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 118 | 60.2%71 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 3.5this page
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: 1st Half O/U 0.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: Ferencvárosi TC O/U 1.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 0.5Over won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 1.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 2.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 4.5Under won
- Ferencvárosi TC vs. Górnik Zabrze: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-1.5)Górnik Zabrze won
- Spread: Ferencvárosi TC (-2.5)Górnik Zabrze won
- Spread: Górnik Zabrze (-1.5)Ferencvárosi TC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.