College Football · resolved market
San Diego State vs. Fresno State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf163e0b472e2971dcb784532bffd9c8ac31a7453b8c43a0a251e7189f639fef8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof San Diego State, Fresno State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,480
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Fresno State | 41c | 10,762$4,362 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,361.55 | 935 | 48.4%453 W · 482 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed San Diego State | 59c | 10,223$6,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,160.09 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked San Diego State | 59c | 5,000$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,050 | 381 | 42.5%162 W · 219 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64b5…7543backed Fresno State | 41c | 4,265$1,749 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,748.63 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Fresno State | 41c | 3,500$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Fresno State | 40c | 3,198$1,279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,279.23 | 2,013 | 49.6%999 W · 1,014 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Fresno State | 32c | 2,850$909 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$908.62 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed San Diego State | 59c | 2,400$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Fresno State | 41c | 2,250$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.57 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked San Diego State | 59c | 2,047$1,205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$842.13 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd589…27c2backed Fresno State | 43c | 2,000$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Fresno State | 42c | 2,000$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Fresno State | 3c | 1,500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked San Diego State | 59c | 1,233$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.46 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba32…deaabacked Fresno State | 4c | 1,227$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked San Diego State | 58c | 1,006$583 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$422.52 | 173 | 61.3%106 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Fresno State | 42c | 780$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.6 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96e1…50aabacked San Diego State | 70c | 759.86$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.36 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Fresno State | 41c | 600$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246 | 157 | 51%80 W · 77 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked San Diego State | 59c | 550$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.5 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…3f81backed San Diego State | 60c | 533.33$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc974…c28cbacked San Diego State | 60c | 500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…34a6backed Fresno State | 41c | 500$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked San Diego State | 57c | 459.51$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.59 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Fresno State | 26c | 444.39$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.41 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Fresno State | 42c | 348$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.16 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc4…37fcbacked Fresno State | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Fresno State | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 280 | 32.9%92 W · 188 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c0…be99backed San Diego State | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 65 | 58.5%38 W · 27 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9334…32dabacked San Diego State | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 188 | 68.1%128 W · 60 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf35…b327backed Fresno State | 45c | 111.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 57 | 43.9%25 W · 32 L | -4.7wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Diego State | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.3 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5652…ff34backed Fresno State | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c46…be29backed San Diego State | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked San Diego State | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.8 | 160 | 44.4%71 W · 89 L | -15.7wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…3e83backed Fresno State | 42c | 59.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c61…5213backed San Diego State | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed San Diego State | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x08f5…009bbacked Fresno State | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58bc…a883backed Fresno State | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9123…9dd3backed San Diego State | 60c | 41.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe530…a2cabacked San Diego State | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351b…4d06backed San Diego State | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4f…6dbbbacked Fresno State | 42c | 27.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…96a5backed San Diego State | 59c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego State vs. Fresno Statethis page
- Spread: San Diego State (-3.5)San Diego State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.