Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf18af68630a28ae5d85e9d74f754db3878a126d8ebb2fc2c8e432544fdafdd38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $76,877
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,114
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $76,877 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 11c | 2,781$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.8 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 29c | 2,591$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.77 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Yes | 4c | 2,035$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b9…3ec2backed Yes | 29c | 1,706$489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.8 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 30c | 1,333$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.99 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 71c | 1,268$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.6 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 72c | 1,101$795 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.1 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 62c | 922.91$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.71 | 186 | 55.4%103 W · 83 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 78c | 909.74$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.14 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 11c | 888.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.01 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 17c | 853.59$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.08 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 19c | 840.99$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.24 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 18c | 684$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.34 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 30c | 539$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.7 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…c419backed Yes | 38c | 526.32$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 79 | 49.4%39 W · 40 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked No | 62c | 521.9$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.81 | 130 | 53.1%69 W · 61 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 37c | 520$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.4 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Yes | 14c | 517.67$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.07 | 103 | 19.4%20 W · 83 L | -6.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 38c | 430.35$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.38 | 236 | 43.6%103 W · 133 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 71c | 399.53$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.06 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 62c | 346.58$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.37 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed No | 76c | 299.88$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Yes | 36c | 296.14$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.65 | 62 | 48.4%30 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 13c | 294.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.12 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 63c | 284$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.08 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…e607backed Yes | 37c | 270$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.9 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 72c | 257$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.25 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d2…a1cdbacked No | 67c | 250.87$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.03 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 62c | 232.99$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.37 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 36c | 230.03$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.37 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 31c | 213$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.03 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed No | 77c | 193$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.05 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 80c | 175.13$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 68c | 168$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.76 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 163.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 69c | 158$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 21c | 147.31$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.09 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 34c | 145$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.3 | 130 | 46.2%60 W · 70 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 16c | 141.85$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 37c | 135.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 530 | 46.4%246 W · 284 L | -15.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Yes | 31c | 115.62$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.84 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 63c | 115.43$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc203…1ad2backed Yes | 32c | 104.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 96.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 74c | 84.26$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19c3…8525backed No | 65c | 83$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.36 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed No | 75c | 80.96$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.19 | 259 | 34.4%89 W · 170 L | -28.1wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked Yes | 13c | 80.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Yes | 14c | 70.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 923 | 46.6%430 W · 493 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Yes | 30c | 62.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.91 | 307 | 35.2%108 W · 199 L | -32.1wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Yes | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4a1…3a92backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 65c | 55.27$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.35 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Yes | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Yes | 31c | 48.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Yes | 33c | 42.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 37c | 39.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked No | 75c | 39$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd5bb…0fe1backed No | 65c | 38.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 122 | 54.9%67 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked No | 65c | 38.54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcce5…7eb2backed No | 65c | 38.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.46 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3c…fc78backed No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x435a…21a5backed Yes | 35c | 35.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Yes | 35c | 29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Yes | 38c | 28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 238 | 58%138 W · 100 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 63c | 26.25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fa…51e5backed No | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 72c | 23.24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 62c | 22.05$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x928d…c482backed No | 69c | 20.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…9d28backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 27 | 70.4%19 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 63c | 18.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x659f…04e4backed No | 63c | 18.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 63c | 18.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed No | 70c | 17.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2568…ef92backed No | 62c | 16.19$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-18?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.