Mls · resolved market
Will FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfa7d49b55359be24522ded7d087699c9740271f3d32c7f304996eb766f533513
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 71c | 10,852$7,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,694.74 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 71c | 5,411$3,828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,827.64 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 31c | 3,390$1,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,351.63 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 46c | 1,917$873 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,044.02 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed Yes | 58c | 1,602$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$678.5 | 177 | 53.1%94 W · 83 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -22%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…5453backed Yes | 50c | 1,260$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$630 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +51%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 25c | 1,116$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.88 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 29c | 773.93$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.49 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeaac…d71dbacked Yes | 26c | 769.19$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.2 | 121 | 46.3%56 W · 65 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 597.78$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.82 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked Yes | 52c | 576.75$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.84 | 222 | 69.4%154 W · 68 L | +31.4wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 59c | 549.73$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.73 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 40c | 445.99$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.04 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa76c…dc83backed Yes | 27c | 372.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.85 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +6.0wins | +0.27per pick | 27cpaid | +84.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 50c | 338.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.15 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 73c | 334.65$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.95 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 72c | 321.18$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.71 | 270 | 58.9%159 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed No | 79c | 265$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.21 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ff3…9293backed No | 28c | 254.14$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.43 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 26c | 229.56$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.87 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 41c | 204$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.78 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 17c | 174.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.45 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed No | 22c | 151$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.22 | 288 | 51.4%148 W · 140 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c4…df5fbacked No | 74c | 150$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 80 | 65%52 W · 28 L | +5.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb29a…bbdebacked No | 68c | 146.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed No | 37c | 139.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.81 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0a…bd3bbacked Yes | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 54c | 131$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.88 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…fa41backed Yes | 28c | 128$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.86 | 70 | 74.3%52 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +39%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91f0…c57abacked No | 74c | 112.66$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.24 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x981b…b8eabacked Yes | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 37c | 100.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.75 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.59 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 103 | 53.4%55 W · 48 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 94.97$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Yes | 37c | 78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked No | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc112…d1efbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.43 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Yes | 37c | 70.2$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 30c | 66.7$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 125 | 71.2%89 W · 36 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 73c | 66.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa66f…f5a3backed No | 73c | 62.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.99 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.14 | 76 | 44.7%34 W · 42 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfc…5c8ebacked Yes | 28c | 54.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.52 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 35c | 53.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.81 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed No | 24c | 52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 61c | 51.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.32 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370e…5df3backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 114 | 41.2%47 W · 67 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c15…9667backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked No | 23c | 47.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 309 | 57%176 W · 133 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 69c | 46.08$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.61 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 243 | 51.4%125 W · 118 L | -16.4wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed No | 74c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7203…795abacked Yes | 61c | 36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 156 | 76.9%120 W · 36 L | +32.7wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd0a5…7f75backed Yes | 63c | 34.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | -16.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0823…8803backed Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 63cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0976…9dcdbacked Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1d…1f61backed Yes | 80c | 26.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f4…4effbacked Yes | 61c | 24.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 75c | 24.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e76…47fabacked No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453c…ae42backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x093b…4e14backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 33 | 75.8%25 W · 8 L | +4.2wins | +0.13per pick | 63cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Cincinnati vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Chicago Fire FC win on 2026-04-18?No won
- Will FC Cincinnati win on 2026-04-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.