Australian A League · resolved market
Will Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf195d7fc4a59c6f7958ab69ebf0b4be59477b11e315ba1dffe6126c6c7218e7f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,271
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,917
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,271 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 58c | 1,923$1,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$803.37 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1353…c7fdbacked Yes | 51c | 828.63$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 31c | 746.16$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.77 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 23c | 600$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b94…82ccbacked Yes | 17c | 592.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 78c | 570.23$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.87 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62e1…7b41backed Yes | 48c | 429.8$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.24 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 60c | 362.76$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.6 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…5a90backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 70c | 319.42$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.32 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 77c | 306.11$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.21 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 31c | 297$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.07 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed No | 69c | 294.06$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.16 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 22c | 293.16$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 80c | 209.8$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…c346backed Yes | 44c | 209.24$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.7 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 59c | 200$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed No | 77c | 135$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 64 | 60.9%39 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed Yes | 12c | 122.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 78c | 105.57$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.22 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed No | 77c | 99.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 18c | 81.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 31c | 81$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.11 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 22c | 78.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Yes | 22c | 77.73$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x172c…94b0backed Yes | 27c | 74.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6479…5e64backed Yes | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fb…74f3backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 19c | 61.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 74c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 24c | 45.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | -13.0wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 23c | 43.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +5.7wins | +0.26per pick | 51cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 79c | 36.71$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46af…1f6abacked No | 77c | 32.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 78c | 22.47$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.97 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 22.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…6504backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7507…71e3backed No | 79c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 79c | 15.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.11 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 77c | 14.11$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ece…a2bcbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?this page
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-14?Yes won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.