Australian A League · resolved market
Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3851dc8f3617edd1387407bedf1baefcc7d0994101eefdd31f038ff4440ecf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Australian A Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,194
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $83,738
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,194 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Australian A League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Australian A League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 79c | 12,153$9,620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,619.75 | 988 | 44.4%439 W · 549 L | -11.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 21c | 7,906$1,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,245.94 | 40 | 32.5%13 W · 27 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed Yes | 20c | 5,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed No | 36c | 4,372$1,577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.82 | 94 | 31.9%30 W · 64 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 39c | 2,245$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.03 | 235 | 51.5%121 W · 114 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 16c | 2,239$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,873.55 | 466 | 44.8%209 W · 257 L | -23.0wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 78c | 2,167$1,687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,686.64 | 437 | 48.3%211 W · 226 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6b…075fbacked No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Yes | 64c | 1,721$1,105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.46 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +3.8wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5016…58e4backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +4.1wins | +0.18per pick | 26cpaid | +85.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 80c | 1,500$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Yes | 24c | 1,440$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,094.61 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +87%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 39c | 1,401$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.91 | 148 | 43.9%65 W · 83 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed No | 3c | 1,333$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 70c | 1,330$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.48 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 15c | 1,079$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.65 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 20c | 965.05$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 334 | 44%147 W · 187 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 22c | 842$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$658 | 300 | 55.3%166 W · 134 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ac03backed No | 9c | 833.69$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.11 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09d2…cc27backed No | 22c | 789.54$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.36 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8feb…b36abacked Yes | 79c | 600$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.24 | 69 | 46.4%32 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fee…5a90backed Yes | 34c | 584.42$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.42 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x012a…c01dbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +108.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…dacebacked No | 10c | 500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +415.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3383…a555backed No | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xceb7…391ebacked Yes | 65c | 499.99$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +5.0wins | +0.29per pick | 59cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x03b9…0e4dbacked Yes | 12c | 455.48$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.93 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.2wins | +0.40per pick | 47cpaid | +155.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2344…6ba3backed No | 13c | 450$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 14c | 417.36$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 305 | 36.1%110 W · 195 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed No | 78c | 400$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddd3…dba6backed No | 76c | 381.58$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 11c | 372.31$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.39 | 478 | 50.8%243 W · 235 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d0d…7435backed Yes | 22c | 356.55$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x466f…bb3bbacked Yes | 12c | 333.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.33 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +2.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +127.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed No | 10c | 300$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +78%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc3…c012backed Yes | 78c | 250$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 68c | 249.84$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.1 | 286 | 59.4%170 W · 116 L | +12.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Yes | 22c | 227.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.27 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 25cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 80c | 225.76$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 78c | 215.01$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.22 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 22c | 206.41$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161 | 76 | 31.6%24 W · 52 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b2…c24ebacked No | 80c | 206.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 79c | 200$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.26per pick | 63cpaid | -41%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x118d…a1d7backed No | 17c | 195.91$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb0…d1bbbacked No | 12c | 187.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -17%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 78c | 181.13$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142 | 168 | 58.3%98 W · 70 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 20c | 172.72$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.72 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.15per pick | 22cpaid | +93.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 79c | 149.99$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5fae…688abacked Yes | 20c | 115.24$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed Yes | 23c | 109.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.81 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9140…a914backed Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed No | 77c | 104.76$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.8 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 29c | 104$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.56 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +9.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1ec…1363backed Yes | 22c | 86.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.82 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.28per pick | 36cpaid | +101.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4035…5e54backed Yes | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.67 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 20c | 79.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0438…9d98backed Yes | 16c | 76.24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf965…9e79backed Yes | 76c | 65.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…ef77backed Yes | 22c | 59.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.09 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed No | 80c | 51.09$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.5 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc28…10a3backed Yes | 51c | 46.69$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.69 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb752…aea9backed No | 80c | 46.34$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b13…3d47backed Yes | 79c | 41.22$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…0661backed Yes | 78c | 38.24$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked No | 36c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3da…566cbacked Yes | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d70…fdd9backed No | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc79f…46b8backed No | 80c | 25.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2444…bdd7backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Yes | 66c | 22.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 79c | 15.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed No | 69c | 14.81$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 76c | 14.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 60 | 80%48 W · 12 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 76cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…95d1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Australian A League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Adelaide United FC win on 2026-02-14?this page
- Will Sydney FC vs. Adelaide United FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Sydney FC win on 2026-02-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.