Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1b0bed9567581b5ce45ba05866c1d64a0ab1da6d8bcd8556cf003b4bb50dad5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Hereticsof Team Heretics, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,719
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,719 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Heretics | 71c | 1,691$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.45 | 931 | 48.1%448 W · 483 L | -11.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb726…4d2bbacked Natus Vincere | 33c | 1,519$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…bb5dbacked Team Heretics | 61c | 867.26$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.26 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +18%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Natus Vincere | 14c | 791.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb19f…dd0ebacked Natus Vincere | 39c | 706.84$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.37 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Heretics | 65c | 680.32$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.72 | 395 | 45.8%181 W · 214 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Team Heretics | 70c | 620.76$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.98 | 796 | 50%398 W · 398 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 512.92$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.07 | 107 | 43.9%47 W · 60 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a96…3087backed Natus Vincere | 60c | 500.95$298 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.13 | 65 | 52.3%34 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Natus Vincere | 31c | 473.9$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.8 | 551 | 52.5%289 W · 262 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Natus Vincere | 21c | 306.42$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xba3a…b49abacked Team Heretics | 56c | 299.97$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.99 | 60 | 68.3%41 W · 19 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +19%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1cff…3984backed Natus Vincere | 33c | 298.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1445…614abacked Natus Vincere | 11c | 247.69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 125 | 52.8%66 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Team Heretics | 75c | 242$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 621 | 56.4%350 W · 271 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Team Heretics | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 308 | 28.2%87 W · 221 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d1…3d4cbacked Natus Vincere | 10c | 164.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -23%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34f9…12ebbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 128.43$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.96 | 212 | 40.1%85 W · 127 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Team Heretics | 65c | 102$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 134 | 49.3%66 W · 68 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc7c…3d8cbacked Team Heretics | 65c | 100.08$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Team Heretics | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 82 | 54.9%45 W · 37 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Team Heretics | 48c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.6 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed Natus Vincere | 43c | 78.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…8dabbacked Team Heretics | 75c | 75$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc65c…ea39backed Natus Vincere | 38c | 67.79$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 343 | 56.9%195 W · 148 L | +23.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x762d…45a6backed Team Heretics | 54c | 67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.12 | 43 | 55.8%24 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked Team Heretics | 41c | 65.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 247 | 32%79 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Natus Vincere | 46c | 48.18$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x727d…1589backed Natus Vincere | 31c | 47.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf71a…fa40backed Natus Vincere | 24c | 47.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 33cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c78…f9bcbacked Natus Vincere | 27c | 40.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ddd…5366backed Natus Vincere | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6c…4f6fbacked Natus Vincere | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9b98…e5d1backed Team Heretics | 72c | 21.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed Team Heretics | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - VCT EMEA Kickoff PlayoffsNatus Vincere won
- Valorant: Team Heretics vs Natus Vincere - Map 1 WinnerNatus Vincere won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.