Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf1e85638774ebd8a2590f296a6c8a2a855dae6d7bffe93e19aa4238476dc1adf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- PuckChampof PuckChamp, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,377
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,377 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4572…83ffbacked PuckChamp | 65c | 5,259$3,444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,815.52 | 534 | 51.7%276 W · 258 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Lynx | 37c | 3,014$1,115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,115.09 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x880d…39bcbacked Team Lynx | 44c | 2,549$1,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.76 | 327 | 56.9%186 W · 141 L | +8.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a93…8e36backed PuckChamp | 75c | 1,484$1,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.6 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Lynx | 35c | 1,394$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.55 | 899 | 38%342 W · 557 L | -45.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -30%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed PuckChamp | 60c | 1,218$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.35 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf3a…fbfdbacked PuckChamp | 53c | 1,097$586 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.84 | 508 | 50.8%258 W · 250 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Team Lynx | 36c | 1,089$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.24 | 377 | 45.9%173 W · 204 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Team Lynx | 35c | 954.02$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.71 | 892 | 38.1%340 W · 552 L | -42.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed Team Lynx | 34c | 916.71$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.5 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7049…85a5backed Team Lynx | 18c | 841.37$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.95 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…1e84backed Team Lynx | 35c | 799.99$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 150 | 50.7%76 W · 74 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed PuckChamp | 56c | 731.04$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.35 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…a5edbacked PuckChamp | 70c | 701.99$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.6 | 406 | 44.6%181 W · 225 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6c…0c16backed Team Lynx | 3c | 700$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 191 | 35.6%68 W · 123 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd19e…d70ebacked PuckChamp | 60c | 666.43$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.43 | 208 | 59.6%124 W · 84 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Lynx | 37c | 634.19$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.21 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb11a…a5d9backed PuckChamp | 78c | 612.75$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.23 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aff…b136backed Team Lynx | 14c | 599.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 324 | 45.1%146 W · 178 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Team Lynx | 3c | 564.04$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x180c…cd04backed Team Lynx | 4c | 538.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 437 | 38.4%168 W · 269 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f42…1f72backed PuckChamp | 75c | 526.25$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.56 | 318 | 65.1%207 W · 111 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Team Lynx | 3c | 519.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.01 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Team Lynx | 36c | 506.33$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.96 | 535 | 38.5%206 W · 329 L | -26.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Lynx | 45c | 500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.62 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed PuckChamp | 65c | 457.62$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.17 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…4afcbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 304$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 143 | 43.4%62 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed PuckChamp | 65c | 262.16$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.79 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Lynx | 37c | 241.84$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.38 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Team Lynx | 30c | 240.48$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91b9…889fbacked PuckChamp | 63c | 236.26$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.37 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabd9…dc3abacked Team Lynx | 15c | 205.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.86 | 187 | 33.2%62 W · 125 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3214…cfcbbacked PuckChamp | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…e3a8backed PuckChamp | 64c | 190.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.95 | 252 | 66.3%167 W · 85 L | +20.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked PuckChamp | 62c | 187.33$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Team Lynx | 32c | 183.8$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.56 | 683 | 45.8%313 W · 370 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked PuckChamp | 71c | 178.29$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.8 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…2035backed PuckChamp | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 332 | 65.4%217 W · 115 L | +23.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b6f…aab3backed PuckChamp | 68c | 147.88$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.88 | 426 | 60.1%256 W · 170 L | +19.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e7…1082backed PuckChamp | 62c | 145.07$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Team Lynx | 25c | 132.79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.96 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a9…e7d8backed Team Lynx | 46c | 131.48$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.02 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -4.9wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Team Lynx | 32c | 126.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3038backed PuckChamp | 64c | 124.73$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.73 | 235 | 62.1%146 W · 89 L | +8.2wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c81…5518backed Team Lynx | 47c | 121.5$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.58 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc925…6d24backed Team Lynx | 17c | 109.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 416 | 32.7%136 W · 280 L | -37.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…0c69backed Team Lynx | 45c | 108.22$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff77…b6b4backed Team Lynx | 29c | 100.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f20…934fbacked PuckChamp | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 128 | 60.9%78 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d8…c931backed Team Lynx | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed PuckChamp | 52c | 92.21$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Team Lynx | 38c | 82.86$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.64 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5a08…ebdcbacked PuckChamp | 72c | 74.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -5.4wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…ddd2backed PuckChamp | 67c | 74.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 214 | 47.2%101 W · 113 L | +16.7wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb77…fbeebacked Team Lynx | 37c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.73 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec96…f5d7backed Team Lynx | 46c | 71.63$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.95 | 372 | 53%197 W · 175 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94e8…f707backed Team Lynx | 51c | 66.85$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd75a…d264backed PuckChamp | 63c | 64$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.68 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x59e2…1c55backed Team Lynx | 52c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 475 | 48%228 W · 247 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Team Lynx | 27c | 54.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde55…1d2abacked PuckChamp | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 71 | 64.8%46 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed PuckChamp | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed PuckChamp | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 85 | 32.9%28 W · 57 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3c5…f095backed PuckChamp | 79c | 25.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 606 | 60.7%368 W · 238 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed PuckChamp | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34c…ca55backed PuckChamp | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed PuckChamp | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Lynx (BO3) - Asgard Championship PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: PuckChamp vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Game 1: Any Player Rampage?No won
- Game 2: Any Player Rampage?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.