TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-12.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,475
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,501

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,475 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc996…bb65backed Thunder48c6,166$2,948 inWon+$3,218.0147144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x683a…274ebacked Kings52c3,000$1,560 inLost-$1,56018536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdec6…1d8ebacked Kings52c2,000$1,040 inLost-$1,0403256.3%18 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+15.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb295…e601backed Kings53c820.75$435 inLost-$4354259.5%25 W · 17 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick57cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0bce…558cbacked Kings53c352.83$187 inLost-$1878345.8%38 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder44c140$62 inWon+$78.49,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Kings56c140$78 inLost-$78.433950.1%170 W · 169 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6366…8ddebacked Kings58c17.79$10 inLost-$10.321330.8%4 W · 9 L-3.7wins-0.28per pick59cpaid-48%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.