TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-8.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$4,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,638

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,404 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Kings39c1,622$632 inLost-$631.859,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd97c…aedbbacked Thunder61c1,456$888 inWon+$567.7418452.7%97 W · 87 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings37c793.22$293 inLost-$293.492,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa65b…0419backed Thunder63c793.22$500 inWon+$293.4914763.3%93 W · 54 L+4.6wins+0.03per pick60cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Thunder52c759.43$392 inWon+$367.278,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Kings49c544.2$264 inLost-$264.0747144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd99…f375backed Kings48c500$240 inLost-$24038151.2%195 W · 186 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0394…20e9backed Kings67c500$335 inLost-$3352634.6%9 W · 17 L-3.7wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-30.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bf5…9e5cbacked Thunder33c500$165 inWon+$335966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+39.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xabfc…0fc2backed Thunder52c239.71$125 inWon+$115.066251.6%32 W · 30 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x061e…81e0backed Thunder58c68.41$40 inWon+$28.4119849%97 W · 101 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4d2b…6a1dbacked Thunder61c40.98$25 inWon+$15.985160.8%31 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+16.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4f1…6349backed Thunder62c24.19$15 inWon+$9.1917350.9%88 W · 85 L-6.7wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a4e…7e00backed Thunder62c21.79$14 inWon+$8.282045%9 W · 11 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-27%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x78d4…7120backed Thunder61c20$12 inWon+$7.85773.7%42 W · 15 L+5.6wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+17%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.