TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-10.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$107,651
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$108,309

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,651 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4335…fc2fbacked Kings46c47,425$21,816 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,815.6817354.3%94 W · 79 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3c3…eec8backed Thunder52c30,000$15,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,40038248.7%186 W · 196 L+13.9wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Kings48c29,847$14,327 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,326.6719249.5%95 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-13.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Thunder53c16,859$9,019 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,839.869,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Thunder54c10,000$5,374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,625.9434645.4%157 W · 189 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Thunder54c10,000$5,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,60051350.1%257 W · 256 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Thunder54c4,914$2,648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,266.2647448.7%231 W · 243 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kings47c3,632$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.6385742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Kings48c3,500$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,679.9647748.8%233 W · 244 L+1.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Thunder54c3,000$1,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,38018047.8%86 W · 94 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Thunder53c2,922$1,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,369.6669852%363 W · 335 L+10.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Thunder54c2,000$1,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92017637.5%66 W · 110 L-16.3wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-20.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Thunder54c1,870$1,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$860.26,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder51c1,500$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7303,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Thunder51c1,500$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7302,79650.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L+27.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb00…42e9backed Thunder56c1,259$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$559.144454.5%24 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fc9…e444backed Kings56c1,106$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.535133.3%17 W · 34 L-6.0wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-37.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3823…0040backed Kings49c1,017$498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498.33425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6bd…270cbacked Kings50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012452.4%65 W · 59 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcce0…9fbcbacked Thunder52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.542356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d0…0256backed Kings49c936$459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.64616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x06d4…9c99backed Thunder51c905$462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.45560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1385…ddd2backed Thunder51c900$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4415100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3554…9645backed Kings49c896$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.04616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.29per pick45cpaid-67.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d1b…5940backed Kings49c869$426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425.81616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-61.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a8a…0d93backed Thunder51c842$429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$412.58475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick51cpaid+47.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9bbf…5065backed Thunder51c808$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3a8…20f9backed Thunder51c805$411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.45580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+56.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2dd4…bbb3backed Thunder51c753$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.975100%5 W · 0 L+2.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+103.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2bc9…271abacked Kings49c743$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.0740%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Thunder52c694.03$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$334.792,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7751…30ccbacked Kings49c630$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.750%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3b6d…74cdbacked Kings49c613$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.3750%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Thunder53c555.21$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.9539051.5%201 W · 189 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a94…e2c6backed Thunder51c548$279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.524100%4 W · 0 L+2.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfee8…6a85backed Thunder51c499$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.51560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+17.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x504f…3ddcbacked Kings49c408.16$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20017356.6%98 W · 75 L+4.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Kings53c382.53$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.14837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Thunder45c360.95$161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20047144.2%208 W · 263 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid+0.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcfae…ff20backed Kings49c356$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.44616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.26per pick43cpaid-61.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Kings50c350$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17524533.9%83 W · 162 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Thunder55c329.69$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.362,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x007b…adc6backed Kings50c298.8$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.414727.9%41 W · 106 L-7.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-16.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings46c283$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.868,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5ef…9e7abacked Thunder50c255.08$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.5425248.4%122 W · 130 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Kings49c250$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.595641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e84…768ebacked Thunder52c246.15$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.1513644.9%61 W · 75 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x12c4…ff8cbacked Thunder55c204.04$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.8215245.4%69 W · 83 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8059…c043backed Kings50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10026150.2%131 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings47c138.27$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.580148.3%387 W · 414 L-3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x084d…7e47backed Kings48c125$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602060%12 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe45d…f77ebacked Kings51c107.84$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5525336.8%93 W · 160 L-10.2wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66fe…e123backed Kings48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4818656.5%105 W · 81 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+12.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1a3…0c69backed Thunder52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4815838.6%61 W · 97 L-11.1wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x54ae…32c2backed Kings48c100$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$487653.9%41 W · 35 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeda9…a43fbacked Kings50c86$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kings46c84$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.643,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2a31…152cbacked Kings50c80$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4048451.2%248 W · 236 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe827…5209backed Thunder54c80$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.83568.6%24 W · 11 L+6.9wins+0.20per pick49cpaid+35.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5a3c…93d7backed Thunder53c75.47$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4740346.2%186 W · 217 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+8.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Kings47c74.47$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3537755.7%210 W · 167 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x079a…8fbabacked Kings49c60$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.42450%12 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x162e…94a4backed Kings50c60$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302330.4%7 W · 16 L-4.7wins-0.20per pick51cpaid-39.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdcaf…3ca6backed Kings50c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254542.2%19 W · 26 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-3.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Kings47c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.56349.2%31 W · 32 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Kings46c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2338845.6%177 W · 211 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a3…8dadbacked Kings49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204235.7%15 W · 27 L-6.7wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-29.2%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf3e1…61edbacked Kings49c40.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6d58…8accbacked Thunder52c38.46$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.4635851.7%185 W · 173 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87e8…5e6ebacked Kings54c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2016743.7%73 W · 94 L-16.6wins-0.10per pick54cpaid-18.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9816…28a7backed Kings49c36.73$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183740.5%15 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings45c34.36$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.462,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e0f…7037backed Kings50c33.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.73243.8%14 W · 18 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b83…ed1dbacked Kings49c30.61$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x115e…f5dabacked Thunder51c30$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.6757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid0%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Thunder54c29.2$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.431,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd960…1adebacked Thunder52c28.85$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8513652.2%71 W · 65 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a0f…74adbacked Kings50c25.52$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.761030%3 W · 7 L-2.2wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-45.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8217…4936backed Thunder56c25.21$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.124148.8%20 W · 21 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a5c…b3f2backed Kings47c21.44$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0632743.4%142 W · 185 L+0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfde…71d3backed Kings50c21.26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.631241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0dd0…8492backed Kings50c20.88$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.441631.3%5 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-31.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd15d…c293backed Kings50c20.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.35862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+26%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb1d…2bd7backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fa0…aa66backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102955.2%16 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-2.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc609…f29abacked Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105341.5%22 W · 31 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9705…1468backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-19.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x801e…c4a1backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101450%7 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae21…f485backed Kings50c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+47.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.