NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b59d86c390925266a4b2b65a083e3c1797d63515ca73a3653c5592cbdf4008b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $522,266
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $521,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $522,266 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Thunder | 51c | 406,799$208,412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198,387.63 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Kings | 49c | 208,222$101,042 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101,042.46 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Kings | 50c | 98,840$49,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49,300 | 1,046 | 51.1%534 W · 512 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Kings | 49c | 68,484$33,342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33,342.16 | 478 | 48.1%230 W · 248 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 49c | 36,635$17,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,793.26 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Kings | 49c | 15,671$7,627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,626.58 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Kings | 50c | 12,573$6,311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,311.21 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Thunder | 51c | 12,000$6,120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,880 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Thunder | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Kings | 50c | 6,100$3,071 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,070.99 | 824 | 42.2%348 W · 476 L | -3.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed7…e617backed Kings | 49c | 5,500$2,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,695 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Thunder | 50c | 4,860$2,430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,430 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Kings | 48c | 4,457$2,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,160.64 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Kings | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Kings | 48c | 1,942$935 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.16 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Thunder | 49c | 1,801$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.81 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68d1…f84fbacked Kings | 50c | 1,475$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.27 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.3wins | -0.30per pick | 48cpaid | -69.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…8cc5backed Kings | 49c | 1,200$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588 | 432 | 47.5%205 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcf…146ebacked Kings | 51c | 1,078$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -9.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Kings | 51c | 1,020$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520.2 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdec6…1d8ebacked Kings | 48c | 999.67$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.84 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3414…067abacked Kings | 50c | 900$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 315 | 38.1%120 W · 195 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf327…34dbbacked Kings | 52c | 757.69$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Thunder | 50c | 600$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…dd68backed Thunder | 52c | 561.32$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.64 | 94 | 30.9%29 W · 65 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Thunder | 52c | 555$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Kings | 49c | 459.55$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.18 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Kings | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 591 | 40.8%241 W · 350 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked Kings | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 456 | 47.1%215 W · 241 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 49c | 209.89$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.79 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1181…8ce4backed Kings | 51c | 195.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.92 | 70 | 35.7%25 W · 45 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x091e…3432backed Thunder | 70c | 140$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b8…68a5backed Thunder | 53c | 117.42$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.19 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda37…6a4abacked Kings | 49c | 107$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Kings | 50c | 105$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…55f0backed Kings | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 346 | 45.7%158 W · 188 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4731…cba8backed Kings | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 120 | 50.8%61 W · 59 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Kings | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Kings | 49c | 81.28$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.53 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0257…22b2backed Thunder | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 710 | 44.6%317 W · 393 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabf6…129dbacked Kings | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 1,053 | 53.5%563 W · 490 L | -15.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 48c | 45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…9c55backed Kings | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…0a92backed Thunder | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. KingsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.