TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Thunder vs. Kings

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Kings
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,850,121
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,878,504

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,850,121 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 322 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3987…259ebacked Kings18c1,148,965$204,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204,227.158022.5%18 W · 62 L-10.0wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-49.4%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0xc4c8…fed1backed Kings17c25,000$4,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,2503748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick41cpaid-3.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ed7…e617backed Kings17c19,927$3,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,382.257255.6%40 W · 32 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x94d7…bef5backed Kings13c19,765$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50025925.9%67 W · 192 L+6.5wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe966…0228backed Kings18c12,028$2,156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,156.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Kings3c11,661$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.211,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Kings14c11,000$1,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,489.9976850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…4f5dbacked Kings78c10,800$8,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,42420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeded…1db9backed Thunder22c10,800$2,376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,4242100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+189.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Kings20c10,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00037930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Thunder80c10,000$7,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,018.291,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3850…c4b4backed Kings17c10,000$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.9812334.1%42 W · 81 L-3.1wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc610…707abacked Thunder2c9,750$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,555475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick28cpaid+1,408.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Kings17c9,070$1,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,521.062,26543.4%982 W · 1,283 L-26.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1bc6…c936backed Kings23c8,772$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00015547.1%73 W · 82 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Kings18c7,150$1,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2871,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb7b…1476backed Kings15c6,135$919 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$919.519145.5%87 W · 104 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Kings16c6,040$989 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$988.771052.1%370 W · 340 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Kings16c6,029$954 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$953.9916446.3%76 W · 88 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x377c…91aebacked Kings12c6,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72047535.8%170 W · 305 L+41.1wins+0.09per pick27cpaid+26.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Kings18c5,766$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.585742.6%365 W · 492 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kings14c5,736$784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$783.91,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fb…3b99backed Kings18c5,556$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3be…a12ebacked Kings18c4,980$896 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$896.4425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Kings18c4,926$894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$893.5336148.5%175 W · 186 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6199…9316backed Kings18c4,800$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$864616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick27cpaid+254.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Kings25c4,210$1,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.840648%195 W · 211 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Kings7c4,097$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.768,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Kings16c4,000$640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64018142%76 W · 105 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc550…353fbacked Kings17c4,000$680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.996636.4%24 W · 42 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a09…f9f7backed Kings22c3,890$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.771,29448.1%623 W · 671 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Thunder78c3,094$2,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.63345.5%15 W · 18 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-21.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Kings17c3,000$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.8543051.4%221 W · 209 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Kings15c3,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46061835.4%219 W · 399 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Kings18c3,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.9924330.9%75 W · 168 L-11.5wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Kings17c2,971$512 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$511.9848944.2%216 W · 273 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Kings17c2,912$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.710235.3%36 W · 66 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e12…425dbacked Kings18c2,800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5041010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-82.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x232c…bd19backed Kings18c2,500$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45d6…36cbbacked Kings12c2,329$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$283.5624533.9%83 W · 162 L-19.1wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Kings15c2,320$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3486435.9%23 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b49…69a5backed Kings18c2,300$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$414333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-46.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a7a…15a4backed Kings18c2,222$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40031044.8%139 W · 171 L+1.1wins0.00per pick44cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Kings1c2,050$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.57502%15 W · 735 L-3.2wins0.00per pick2cpaid-63.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Kings18c2,047$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.41,19838.8%465 W · 733 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf967…8cd4backed Kings18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3609042.2%38 W · 52 L+5.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb820…cbe7backed Kings22c2,000$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$447.5158951.3%302 W · 287 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Kings18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36082442.2%348 W · 476 L-3.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13fa…3facbacked Kings19c2,000$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39017931.8%57 W · 122 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick28cpaid+16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc378…739dbacked Kings5c1,977$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.97812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick29cpaid-63.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd3a…67cabacked Kings19c1,955$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.9950838.2%194 W · 314 L+22.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+1.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca9e…d256backed Kings17c1,900$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3231241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid+63.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Kings22c1,807$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2824634.6%85 W · 161 L-6.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09ec…427dbacked Kings15c1,807$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.1416439.6%65 W · 99 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Kings19c1,642$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.943,34243.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L+81.2wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6dae…b6a5backed Kings18c1,600$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-38.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcc…bb85backed Kings18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701050%5 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-11.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdcad…eeb9backed Kings18c1,500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2701145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-34.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Kings1c1,333$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.337211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Kings22c1,209$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.0917250%86 W · 86 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf93f…f94bbacked Kings18c1,200$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21616633.7%56 W · 110 L-11.6wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-26.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Kings17c1,200$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20443247.5%205 W · 227 L+11.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf91e…7e0bbacked Kings15c1,198$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.6847949.7%238 W · 241 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Kings17c1,176$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001,29044%567 W · 723 L+35.0wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac2a…7418backed Kings17c1,147$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005729.8%17 W · 40 L-3.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-23.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Kings16c1,117$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.8630249.3%149 W · 153 L+33.5wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+31.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x3697…f189backed Kings6c1,090$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.465218.4%120 W · 532 L+12.0wins+0.02per pick17cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35a8…feb4backed Kings23c1,087$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick35cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d79…4da1backed Kings18c1,082$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003625%9 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Kings16c1,033$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.996,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f05…8937backed Kings20c1,032$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.2747028.1%132 W · 338 L+27.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x64ba…b7bfbacked Kings18c1,000$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1805156.9%29 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Kings15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15016749.1%82 W · 85 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68db…e12bbacked Kings16c1,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1603511.4%4 W · 31 L-3.6wins-0.10per pick22cpaid-64.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xddfc…38e5backed Thunder79c1,000$790 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2102236.4%8 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-32.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8c1…06cebacked Kings17c999.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703125.8%8 W · 23 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Thunder78c958.45$748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.8635651.1%182 W · 174 L+4.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e79…ff8bbacked Kings17c882.35$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15017456.9%99 W · 75 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+8.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3351…4e2dbacked Kings21c860.39$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1775959.3%35 W · 24 L+5.3wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Kings3c745$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.738783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7016…85ddbacked Kings18c687.28$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.71922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.28per pick51cpaid-63.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xf6ce…af69backed Thunder79c686.07$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.07771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick63cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7f…dd41backed Kings3c666.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203729.7%11 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick32cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8935…837dbacked Kings11c611.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7014639.7%58 W · 88 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kings15c610.4$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.563,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5487…a014backed Thunder77c599.99$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1361,66752.7%878 W · 789 L+45.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f24…59e7backed Thunder78c579.75$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.75988.9%8 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.32per pick57cpaid+72.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf91f…a82bbacked Kings18c579.3$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.713630.6%11 W · 25 L-1.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Kings17c575.16$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.7824634.1%84 W · 162 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x520a…ab8abacked Kings16c560$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.651037.5%191 W · 319 L+1.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd461…1d6cbacked Kings18c555.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015228.3%43 W · 109 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7de0…7c66backed Kings18c554.51$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040536.5%148 W · 257 L+13.3wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc478…59bdbacked Kings6c550.98$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312934.5%10 W · 19 L+5.1wins+0.18per pick17cpaid+130.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5ebf…e50fbacked Kings11c500.44$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5565144.5%290 W · 361 L+36.3wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4cb9…3783backed Kings18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9064139%250 W · 391 L+2.6wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8465…6bbdbacked Kings17c500$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854831.3%15 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Kings18c500$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9095641.7%399 W · 557 L+1.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb3f…0a9bbacked Thunder75c500$375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1258454.8%46 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x38ba…bf76backed Kings13c495.08$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.362642.3%11 W · 15 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-23.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x817b…3c25backed Thunder78c489.99$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.81,04841.1%431 W · 617 L+23.6wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.