NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7abe88c54359e15ce19513176fe231c4a2d406e325ecc81f68b3ba1c471dd977
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,898
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,898 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a94…e2c6backed Over | 51c | 4,767$2,431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,335.83 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8a…0d93backed Under | 49c | 2,946$1,444 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,443.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 51cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06d4…9c99backed Under | 49c | 2,466$1,208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,208.34 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…ddd2backed Over | 51c | 2,256$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2dd4…bbb3backed Over | 51c | 2,256$1,151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,105.44 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc3a8…20f9backed Over | 51c | 2,094$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,026.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…6a85backed Under | 49c | 2,046$1,003 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,002.54 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 1,414$656 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.76 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe127…546cbacked Over | 54c | 1,110$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.98 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3823…0040backed Under | 49c | 1,056$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bbf…5065backed Under | 49c | 806$395 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.94 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc9…271abacked Under | 49c | 765$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.85 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7751…30ccbacked Under | 49c | 652$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.48 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Under | 47c | 645$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.15 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6d…74cdbacked Under | 49c | 636$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d1b…5940backed Under | 49c | 600$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 47c | 553.05$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.17 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d0…0256backed Over | 51c | 540$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3554…9645backed Over | 51c | 535$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.29per pick | 45cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfae…ff20backed Under | 49c | 475$233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.75 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Over | 54c | 312$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.52 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…0ba4backed Over | 50c | 270$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 46c | 207.98$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.9 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cb9…3783backed Under | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 641 | 39%250 W · 391 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69dc…336dbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 129 | 50.4%65 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Over | 57c | 92.98$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.98 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Under | 46c | 80$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 248 | 35.1%87 W · 161 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 49c | 46$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.54 | 1,332 | 51.2%682 W · 650 L | +7.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d58…8accbacked Under | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 358 | 51.7%185 W · 173 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…eaa6backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 163 | 57.1%93 W · 70 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb61…bd7fbacked Over | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.08 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 231.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. KingsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Under won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.