NBA · resolved market
Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2c5e2f0dd402171127d2359017ff4b4371a943c5f0b298954f5c34b939875a13
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,865
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,865 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 35,464$17,301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,163 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Over | 51c | 20,000$10,221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,221.31 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 52c | 12,210$6,289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,289.14 | 513 | 50.1%257 W · 256 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe653…c4a7backed Over | 50c | 9,999$4,999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,999.43 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Under | 50c | 9,987$4,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,993.43 | 524 | 60.1%315 W · 209 L | +35.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9165…5b98backed Over | 53c | 2,920$1,548 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,547.71 | 252 | 48.4%122 W · 130 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f13…e0fdbacked Under | 47c | 2,043$960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.6 | 724 | 50.7%367 W · 357 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe948…ff23backed Over | 51c | 1,961$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 172 | 50%86 W · 86 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 50c | 1,500$745 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$745 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 49c | 1,500$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$765 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Under | 49c | 261.04$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.54 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…cd84backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 123 | 42.3%52 W · 71 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Under | 48c | 131.25$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.25 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5631…bd3abacked Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 62.5%35 W · 21 L | +6.4wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfde8…c52fbacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6cc…18cebacked Over | 54c | 75.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 83 | 44.6%37 W · 46 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Under | 50c | 62$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed Under | 50c | 20.4$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29c1…012cbacked Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 233.5this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Thunder vs. KingsThunder won
- Thunder vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineThunder won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 226.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Thunder vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.