Mls · resolved market
FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf21c727cbfca5124443c493ec388d9591e51eab04ecdb0bf8b6a1ee1708e381e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,093
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,247
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,093 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 57c | 2,816$1,605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211 | 278 | 37.8%105 W · 173 L | +6.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…6478backed Under | 40c | 2,514$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.71 | 156 | 47.4%74 W · 82 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 43c | 2,071$887 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$886.93 | 971 | 46.1%448 W · 523 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 860.94$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.58 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 157 | 48.4%76 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Over | 60c | 348.45$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.33 | 40 | 55%22 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7210…521fbacked Over | 57c | 343.86$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.86 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.9wins | +0.24per pick | 59cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc253…5800backed Over | 62c | 194.03$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.03 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 57c | 188.34$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.87 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 42c | 157.19$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.8 | 702 | 49.7%349 W · 353 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 59c | 118$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.11 | 205 | 54.6%112 W · 93 L | +17.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 112.33$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 41c | 104.06$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 472 | 40.7%192 W · 280 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 59c | 95$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.24 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Over | 61c | 83.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.52 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6af…b5efbacked Over | 62c | 80.89$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.89 | 109 | 50.5%55 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 55c | 72.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 360 | 51.9%187 W · 173 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 32c | 63.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under | 38c | 60.75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 66c | 58.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 294 | 60.5%178 W · 116 L | +36.5wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Over | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 99 | 65.7%65 W · 34 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 84 | 65.5%55 W · 29 L | +16.4wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 54.4$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 311 | 58.5%182 W · 129 L | +27.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 43c | 53.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.96 | 351 | 49.6%174 W · 177 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed Over | 64c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 161 | 59.6%96 W · 65 L | +18.4wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 38c | 46.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.54 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 59c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.27 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 58c | 27.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Over | 68c | 27.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 60c | 23.2$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Over | 58c | 20.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.77 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 55c | 19.58$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 58c | 18.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 2.5this page
- FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- FC Dallas vs. Vancouver Whitecaps FC: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: Vancouver Whitecaps FC (-2.5)FC Dallas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.