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Tennis · resolved market

Phoenix: Nuno Borges vs Marcos Giron

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Marcos Gironof Nuno Borges, Marcos Giron
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$96,275

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $96,275 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 139 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x187b…26bfbacked Marcos Giron51c6,647$3,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,249.716541.5%27 W · 38 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ba6…0f07backed Marcos Giron53c6,311$3,345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,966.1767449.6%334 W · 340 L-11.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddd3…dba6backed Nuno Borges47c4,770$2,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,241.938343.4%36 W · 47 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Nuno Borges48c4,351$2,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,088.2666258.9%390 W · 272 L-32.8wins-0.05per pick64cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x26fb…67b8backed Marcos Giron71c3,494$2,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.5965157.1%372 W · 279 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Marcos Giron52c3,487$1,797 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6902,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Marcos Giron70c3,124$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$925.5946473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed Nuno Borges22c2,514$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$555.3475748.6%368 W · 389 L+16.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Marcos Giron64c2,356$1,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.246,67850.7%3,387 W · 3,291 L+265.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Nuno Borges40c1,956$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.793,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f07…9d0fbacked Nuno Borges50c1,900$947 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94770752.8%373 W · 334 L-18.5wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e7…b14fbacked Nuno Borges49c1,580$773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$773.2220336%73 W · 130 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+14.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Marcos Giron64c1,517$979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.8311,77943.3%5,102 W · 6,677 L+20.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marcos Giron80c1,495$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.438,24145.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L+166.2wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75a7…2d61backed Nuno Borges4c1,491$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.8671725.2%181 W · 536 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54a2…5dfebacked Nuno Borges48c1,313$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6337949.4%39 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Nuno Borges49c1,308$636 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.641,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Nuno Borges50c1,210$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6111,18762.8%746 W · 441 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55fb…fe7bbacked Marcos Giron52c1,150$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5523132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Nuno Borges27c1,144$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30452433%173 W · 351 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Nuno Borges33c1,097$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3601,67553.1%889 W · 786 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Nuno Borges47c1,090$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.494,09039.8%1,628 W · 2,462 L+95.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3032…9b05backed Nuno Borges46c1,087$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006934.8%24 W · 45 L-9.9wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-31.5%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Marcos Giron63c1,081$683 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$398.792,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Marcos Giron51c1,004$508 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$495.632,42647.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-13.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bcc…84c1backed Marcos Giron52c1,000$520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48010341.7%43 W · 60 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Marcos Giron50c996.15$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.6126254.6%143 W · 119 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ffb…e82abacked Nuno Borges42c929.66$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.4944038.4%169 W · 271 L-27.2wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-29%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdcb…36c9backed Nuno Borges49c704.08$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3458530.6%26 W · 59 L-5.2wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-3.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc181…0992backed Marcos Giron53c569.7$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.765651.8%340 W · 316 L-0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Nuno Borges34c547.57$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.51,13650%568 W · 568 L-23.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Nuno Borges48c533.95$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.617,77447.8%3,715 W · 4,059 L+40.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b35…51b3backed Nuno Borges49c479.59$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23535360.9%215 W · 138 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d6f…7135backed Marcos Giron54c452.87$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.3215857.6%91 W · 67 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3966…c095backed Nuno Borges49c429.18$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad15…ee7fbacked Nuno Borges49c389.49$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.852245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x503b…3456backed Nuno Borges48c366.96$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.2930%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa04b…6698backed Nuno Borges49c333$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$163.1720%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xceb7…8b33backed Nuno Borges26c328.84$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.911452.6%60 W · 54 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6008…4638backed Nuno Borges26c328$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.892040%8 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-37.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Marcos Giron51c323.74$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$159.764,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ab5…900bbacked Nuno Borges26c306.93$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Nuno Borges49c300$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14735040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd646…6832backed Nuno Borges49c285.71$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1402161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Marcos Giron54c276.4$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.41,13242.8%485 W · 647 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Nuno Borges48c250.04$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.763,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked Nuno Borges32c248.57$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.815147.7%72 W · 79 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-16.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e93…79f3backed Marcos Giron54c227.09$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.921257.5%122 W · 90 L+0.5wins0.00per pick57cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked Nuno Borges53c218$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5673745.2%333 W · 404 L-9.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8507…37fabacked Marcos Giron58c216.48$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.47450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+46.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c1e…fe89backed Nuno Borges49c215.82$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Nuno Borges50c214.98$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.961,83253%971 W · 861 L-45.6wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Nuno Borges49c207.41$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,26529.2%370 W · 895 L-13.3wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4c4…f4cbbacked Nuno Borges49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002147.6%10 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…e488backed Marcos Giron49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.081464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+28.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xac9e…cca3backed Nuno Borges49c204.08$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022056.4%124 W · 96 L-5.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Nuno Borges49c203.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Marcos Giron50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10025355.7%141 W · 112 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9bc5…908abacked Marcos Giron50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10058753.7%315 W · 272 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc629…5e51backed Marcos Giron50c198.7$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.757349.6%284 W · 289 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Marcos Giron51c195.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.042,05959.5%1,226 W · 833 L-0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…7824backed Nuno Borges53c189.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.3wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-31.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5fc3…0670backed Nuno Borges53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10048344.5%215 W · 268 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9318…a645backed Marcos Giron53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.6818659.7%111 W · 75 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf97e…aa3fbacked Marcos Giron54c185.38$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.389757.7%56 W · 41 L+9.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Nuno Borges27c177.78$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64ae…ead9backed Nuno Borges50c173.53$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8760641.6%252 W · 354 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Nuno Borges46c166.24$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.89,40644.3%4,171 W · 5,235 L-245.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Nuno Borges49c163.75$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.2430131.9%96 W · 205 L-9.5wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8642…47c8backed Nuno Borges49c163.27$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8025250%126 W · 126 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Marcos Giron62c157.03$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.062,78153.8%1,495 W · 1,286 L+71.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Nuno Borges49c153.06$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,11152.8%587 W · 524 L+2.7wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99fc…ec26backed Marcos Giron53c150.94$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.9465439.9%261 W · 393 L-21.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Nuno Borges50c150$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$751,69450.5%856 W · 838 L+13.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3ad9…3cb4backed Nuno Borges49c145.47$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.285450%27 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaf6…1a9bbacked Marcos Giron51c145.45$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.3469051.2%353 W · 337 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Nuno Borges48c142$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.567,20149.7%3,577 W · 3,624 L+114.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaea0…0decbacked Nuno Borges52c141$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6797046.6%452 W · 518 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-17.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Nuno Borges50c140$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7018933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-16.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Marcos Giron57c131.9$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.236,86748.9%3,357 W · 3,510 L+61.5wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25bf…7a56backed Marcos Giron51c117.17$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.172,34846.5%1,092 W · 1,256 L+54.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xba49…e8acbacked Marcos Giron63c116.98$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.487038.6%27 W · 43 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d46…26d8backed Nuno Borges25c110$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.917762.7%111 W · 66 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84c7…bea7backed Nuno Borges43c105.26$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.2666452.3%347 W · 317 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Nuno Borges41c102.94$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.172,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e0…ca0bbacked Nuno Borges50c100.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick51cpaid+31.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x91c0…e4ccbacked Nuno Borges51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5151539.8%205 W · 310 L-8.8wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Nuno Borges51c100$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512,05347.8%982 W · 1,071 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Nuno Borges36c98.71$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.323,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x0eca…c56abacked Nuno Borges29c97$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2179952.9%423 W · 376 L+25.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5940…139abacked Marcos Giron53c94.26$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-34.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Marcos Giron54c92.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.882,15354.1%1,165 W · 988 L-2.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbebf…9baebacked Marcos Giron56c90.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.0590854.5%495 W · 413 L+21.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Nuno Borges30c81$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2148449.4%239 W · 245 L-1.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7747…8d9bbacked Nuno Borges61c74.2$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.9131941.4%132 W · 187 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce45…55d1backed Nuno Borges41c74.04$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8441…7925backed Nuno Borges29c72$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.649347.3%44 W · 49 L-4.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d37…59b5backed Marcos Giron52c67.37$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.379462.8%59 W · 35 L+9.2wins+0.10per pick53cpaid+21.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Marcos Giron44c66.5$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.384,68448.3%2,264 W · 2,420 L+35.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a46…ba91backed Nuno Borges49c61.22$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306259.7%37 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.