NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf2631ee598e33fa6e965cbf96fc12a03bc858316aee53976a3491ee707a82f14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,091
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,984
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,091 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Over | 75c | 4,036$3,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,006.4 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…cb72backed Under | 25c | 3,982$995 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$995.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ea…6791backed Under | 27c | 2,004$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.21 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Over | 73c | 1,411$1,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.58 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 73c | 1,076$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.57 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 73c | 731.26$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.81 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Under | 27c | 558.85$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.89 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 73c | 465.43$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.06 | 502 | 51.2%257 W · 245 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe8…1141backed Under | 26c | 420.59$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 26c | 373.92$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.22 | 665 | 52%346 W · 319 L | +8.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Over | 73c | 370.37$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 919 | 45.6%419 W · 500 L | -27.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 63c | 362.61$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.17 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 37c | 215.53$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.75 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Under | 37c | 212.61$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.16 | 61 | 34.4%21 W · 40 L | -8.5wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 71c | 206.29$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.8 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ae0…8f73backed Under | 26c | 191.12$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.69 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cea…03d4backed Under | 27c | 155.79$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.06 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Under | 27c | 141.73$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3c…4b61backed Under | 35c | 124.89$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Under | 30c | 123.25$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d4…523cbacked Under | 28c | 114.82$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 34c | 102.7$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 39c | 98.03$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Under | 25c | 96.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.23 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0eb…af1ebacked Under | 28c | 62.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 172 | 27.3%47 W · 125 L | -17.4wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd328…8b13backed Over | 66c | 59.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Under | 33c | 49.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 283 | 40.3%114 W · 169 L | -24.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Over | 61c | 46.78$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.24 | 393 | 44.8%176 W · 217 L | +23.3wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Over | 68c | 32.61$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 148 | 55.4%82 W · 66 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf629…38d5backed Over | 69c | 31.4$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.28per pick | 52cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 29.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.58 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c5…4291backed Over | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 78c | 17.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.76 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 77c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x008d…b839backed Over | 76c | 14.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.51 | 450 | 69.3%312 W · 138 L | +51.6wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. KingsAvalanche won
- Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 5.5Over won
- Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Kings: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Avalanche won
- Spread: Avalanche (-2.5)Avalanche won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.