Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf276d249e3227a6064db1d6470ccbc30376571ad8f5a84047586b2c5178b979a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,277
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $136,180
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,277 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 50c | 42,785$21,374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,374.2 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 49c | 40,564$19,939 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,624.6 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 43c | 675$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.6 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 51c | 560.42$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277 | 131 | 37.4%49 W · 82 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 47c | 383.47$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.23 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d20…1f58backed Yes | 76c | 315.95$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.13 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b90…30b6backed Yes | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 47c | 305$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.45 | 592 | 40.7%241 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Yes | 66c | 303$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.02 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | +9.1wins | +0.26per pick | 46cpaid | +65.9%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 47c | 237.94$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.45 | 405 | 49.6%201 W · 204 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…5ae2backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +65%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4157…04f9backed Yes | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -3.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00e0…8a94backed Yes | 53c | 187.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.96 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 48c | 166.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.62 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed No | 47c | 151.71$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.34 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Yes | 67c | 149.2$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.24 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked No | 15c | 145.02$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Yes | 50c | 140$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Yes | 50c | 138.45$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.45 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75ef…cb71backed Yes | 53c | 138.17$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…b56bbacked Yes | 53c | 132.08$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.08 | 99 | 53.5%53 W · 46 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.38 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47ce…2414backed Yes | 53c | 113.21$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Yes | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed No | 48c | 99.97$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Yes | 53c | 94.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.37 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81a4…da1fbacked Yes | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 46c | 86.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.52 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Yes | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.61 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Yes | 75c | 46.2$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd43…7b3fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 49 | 53.1%26 W · 23 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69e…3393backed Yes | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb856…a9bcbacked Yes | 51c | 41.3$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 151 | 41.7%63 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2b0…e756backed Yes | 52c | 35.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.97 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked No | 48c | 31.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2e…f9b8backed Yes | 79c | 30.3$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.36 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5404…5e58backed Yes | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Yes | 51c | 23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.