Serie A · resolved market
ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd98fa322e0054fa7cd01aaaca62e1c9a9371bd8b1c8ec9d692e470bbe03df221
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,851
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,730
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,851 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 80 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 27c | 18,054$4,964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,963.83 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 72c | 10,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,800 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked Over | 68c | 3,000$2,043 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$956.86 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 58c | 3,000$1,734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,266.08 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75dd…171dbacked Over | 75c | 2,444$1,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 28c | 2,219$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.39 | 346 | 43.4%150 W · 196 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 40c | 2,211$878 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877.86 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 25c | 1,716$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.73 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 25c | 1,500$375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$375 | 366 | 30.9%113 W · 253 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 1,034$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.13 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 72c | 800$576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Over | 75c | 800$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 74 | 64.9%48 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…307dbacked Over | 78c | 732.45$571 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.14 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 69c | 508$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.48 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 38c | 507.66$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.54 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 26c | 489.04$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Over | 72c | 420$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 255 | 56.5%144 W · 111 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4a…8e5dbacked Over | 72c | 420$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.6 | 184 | 59.2%109 W · 75 L | +12.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…a040backed Over | 75c | 344.11$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.92 | 112 | 68.8%77 W · 35 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d58…2073backed Under | 23c | 330$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.9 | 168 | 51.2%86 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1d…820cbacked Over | 65c | 307.77$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.77 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ac…c5d1backed Over | 68c | 300$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc0e…0fbdbacked Under | 23c | 300$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 89 | 48.3%43 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc383…a540backed Over | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 122 | 53.3%65 W · 57 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 72c | 280$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.4 | 141 | 55.3%78 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Over | 72c | 250$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 284 | 58.1%165 W · 119 L | +12.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Over | 74c | 200$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 196 | 52%102 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e4…d6b2backed Over | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | +11.2wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa97e…7753backed Over | 72c | 190$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.2 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over | 72c | 180$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7398…f4b6backed Over | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…f56bbacked Over | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 81 | 48.1%39 W · 42 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x864c…735fbacked Over | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 114 | 54.4%62 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over | 56c | 170$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.85 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa48d…b023backed Over | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 77 | 46.8%36 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa620…ca56backed Over | 72c | 170$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 119 | 53.8%64 W · 55 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed Over | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 88 | 52.3%46 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa800…cc71backed Over | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee5…96c2backed Over | 72c | 150$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Over | 74c | 139$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 58c | 131$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.88 | 284 | 45.4%129 W · 155 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31ce…88cdbacked Over | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 94 | 45.7%43 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cae…bf8abacked Over | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b82…2d2abacked Over | 72c | 120$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6df…22a9backed Under | 23c | 120$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 123 | 50.4%62 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 58c | 115$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.3 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +16.1wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xda4f…65babacked Over | 61c | 114.25$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.11 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a31…67b7backed Over | 75c | 103$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.21per pick | 62cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…c47fbacked Under | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 64 | 43.8%28 W · 36 L | -4.5wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa7b5…798cbacked Over | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 95$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.45 | 527 | 48%253 W · 274 L | -35.4wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 74c | 81.63$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.22 | 331 | 44.7%148 W · 183 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aff…c91bbacked Over | 74c | 81$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.06 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa204…e66fbacked Over | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 73 | 53.4%39 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…856cbacked Over | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe601…c728backed Over | 72c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 124 | 54.8%68 W · 56 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 25c | 63.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 368 | 52.7%194 W · 174 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd7de…4d6dbacked Over | 73c | 60.85$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.68 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…2783backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96f4…8081backed Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bdf…8adabacked Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 113 | 54%61 W · 52 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9adf…3f2fbacked Over | 59c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.6 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2d…2570backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf99a…5487backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 81 | 51.9%42 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6afd…5cb1backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…810abacked Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb95e…c6d6backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea2e…d695backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4edd…b1a1backed Over | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 110 | 60%66 W · 44 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a50…9e46backed Over | 75c | 51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 70c | 41.8$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.42 | 170 | 58.2%99 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc87…d938backed Over | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 51 | 56.9%29 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25f6…fcd2backed Over | 74c | 27.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 46 | 71.7%33 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc92…6564backed Over | 74c | 27.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc688…5987backed Over | 80c | 27$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6c…2854backed Over | 76c | 25.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd85…6a32backed Over | 73c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 1.5this page
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 2.5Over won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 3.5Under won
- ACF Fiorentina vs. Cagliari Calcio: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.